聚类分析能为股票投资者提供什么?来自中国能源行业的证据

Luxing Liu, Yufeng Cai, Yalu Wei, Hongjie Jin, Yin-Pei Teng
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摘要

中国是世界上主要的能源生产国和消费国之一。中国能源产业的投资价值引起了国内外投资者的关注。然而,很少有研究专门调查中国传统能源行业的投资评级。因此,本研究运用科学的分析方法,帮助投资者衡量中国能源产业的投资价值和回报。本文从市场绩效和盈余管理的角度,选取影响股票价值评价指标的因素,利用万得数据库的2020年财务报表数据进行实证分析。通过对主要财务指标(如振幅、换手率、销售毛利率、营业收入增长率)的因子分析,我们得到五个主要因子:股票市场表现、交易热度、利润质量、利润规模和利润潜力。然后利用Python中的[公式:见文本]均值算法对56只中国能源行业股票进行分析,并将其投资评级分为风险股、谨慎持有、未确定类别、持有评级、普通评级和买入评级6个等级。通过识别不同类型股票的群体特征,本研究可以为投资者提供决策依据,同时对研究机构、财政部门和政府部门也具有参考价值。
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What Can Cluster Analysis Offer Stock Investors? Evidence from the China's Energy Industry
China is one of the world’s major producers and consumers of energy. The investment value of China’s energy industry has attracted the attention of investors at home and abroad. Few studies, however, have specifically investigated investment ratings in China’s traditional energy industry. This study, therefore, uses scientific analysis methods to help investors measure the investment value and returns of China’s energy industry. From the perspectives of market performance and earnings management, we select factors that influence stock value evaluation indicators and undertake an empirical analysis using financial statement data for 2020 from the Wind database. Based on a factor analysis of the main financial indicators (e.g. amplitude, turnover rate, gross profit margin of sales, growth rate of operating revenue), we obtain five main factors: stock market performance, trading heat, profit quality, profit scale, and profit potential. The [Formula: see text]-means algorithm in Python is then used to analyse 56 stocks in China’s energy industry, and we divide their investment ratings into six grades: risk stocks, prudent holding, undetermined class, hold rating, ordinary rating, and buy rating. By identifying the group characteristics of different types of stocks, this study can provide a decision-making basis for investors while also having reference value for research institutions, financial departments, and government departments.
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