邦卡兰150千伏高压输电网建设项目风险分析

Mario Hartono, I. Putu, Artama Wiguna
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引用次数: 0

摘要

PT. PLN (Persero) UIP JBTB实施的电力项目是150千伏邦卡兰高压输电网和高压电缆通道的建设项目。施工过程中肯定会跨越各种地形,这些地形在施工过程中具有不同程度的风险。此外,150千伏高压输电网及高压电缆通道建设工程是一个非常复杂的工程,每个阶段都有不同的障碍,因此在实施过程中有可能存在较高的风险。风险管理将基于SNI 8615:2018 ISO 31000:2018风险管理指南和SNI IEC/ISO 31010:2016风险管理-风险评估技术。风险管理过程从确定范围、背景和风险标准开始,然后进行风险评估过程,包括识别、分析、风险评估和风险处理。本研究旨在识别高压输电网和高压电缆通道150千伏邦卡兰输电开发项目中出现的风险,并针对项目的极端、极高和高风险类别制定最有效的应对措施。采用定性方法对输电网项目进行了风险分析,得到了风险类别。具有极端、非常高和高类别的风险是无法容忍的风险,将使用预期货币价值方法作为测量数据进行定量分析。此外,通过决策树分析图,将获得几个备选风险处理分支,然后使用响应成功值与成本影响值的乘法对其进行分析,以获得最有效的处理选项。风险处理的结果将分为风险缓解、风险转移和风险接受,剩余风险的结果将通过测试风险处理的有效性来了解。本研究中的最高风险是承包商绩效低于最佳的风险,这会导致项目延迟完成,风险处理方法是通过拍卖过程选择商品/服务提供商过程,该过程包含在选定的提供商列表中。在Bangkalan 150 kV高压输电网建设项目的风险分析研究中,还将风险登记册作为数据库进行了记录。
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Risk Analysis on The Construction Project of The 150 KV Bangkalan High Voltage Transmission Network
Electricity project implemented by PT. PLN (Persero) UIP JBTB is a construction project of the High Voltage Transmission Network and High Voltage Cable Channel 150 kV Bangkalan. The construction will certainly stretch across various terrains that have various levels of risk in the construction process. In addition, the construction project of the High Voltage Transmission Network and High Voltage Cable Channel 150 kV is a very complex project so that each stage has different obstacles so that it has the potential to have high risks in its implementation. The risk management will be based on SNI 8615:2018 ISO 31000:2018 regarding Risk Management – Guidelines and SNI IEC/ISO 31010:2016 Risk Management – Risk Assessment Techniques. The risk management process begins with determining the scope, context and risk criteria and then proceeds with the risk assessment process which includes identification, analysis, risk evaluation and risk treatment. This research was conducted to identify the risks that arise in the High Voltage Transmission Network and High Voltage Cable Channel 150 kV Bangkalan transmission development project and formulate the most effective response for each extreme, very high and high risk category of the project. The risk analysis of the Transmission Network project was carried out using a qualitative method to obtain a risk category. At risk that have extreme, very high, and high categories are risks that cannot be tolerated and a quantitative analysis will be carried out using the Expected Monetary Value method as measured data. Furthermore, with the Decision Tree Analysis diagram, several alternative risk treatment branches will be obtained which will then be analyzed using the multiplication of the response success value with the cost impact value in order to obtain the most effective treatment option. The results of the risk treatment will be categorized into risk mitigation, transferring risk, and accepting risk and the result of residual risk will be known through testing the effectiveness of handling risk treatment. The highest risk in this study is the risk of less than optimal contractor performance which causes project completion to be late with risk treatment by means of the good/services provider process being selected through an auction process which is included in the list of selected providers. The recording the risk register is also carried out as a database in risk analysis research on the construction project of the 150 kV Bangkalan high voltage transmission network.
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