经济和健康不安全感对反移民情绪的因果影响

Gianmarco Daniele, A. Martinangeli, Francesco Passarelli, Willem Sas, Lisa Windsteiger
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引用次数: 2

摘要

尽管有相关证据,但社会经济不安全感与反移民情绪之间的因果关系仍不清楚。我们利用新冠肺炎疫情带来的干扰,随机向调查对象提供有关疫情后果的信息。我们发现,关于经济和健康后果的悲观信息,在因果关系上强化了限制土著居民获得保健服务的愿望。此外,可怕的经济后果的前景给移民和政治激进化带来了普遍的逆境。在移民人口较多的地区,这两种影响都不那么明显。我们的理论模型确定了两种可能的机制来解释这些结果:一方面是在居民和移民之间分配稀缺公共资源的零和游戏,另一方面是对传染的恐惧。这也决定了优先考虑居民和将疫苗接种计划扩大到移民之间的权衡,以降低传染风险。
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The Causal Impact of Economic and Health Insecurity on Anti-Immigration Sentiment
The causal nexus between socio-economic insecurity and anti-immigration sentiments remains unclear despite correlational evidence. We exploit the disruption brought about by the Covid-19 outbreak to randomly provide survey respondents with information about the consequences of the epidemic. We find that pessimistic information about both the economic and health consequences causally reinforces the desire to restrict access to health care to native residents. Further, the prospect of dire economic consequences brings about a general adversity to immigration as well as political radicalisation. Both effects are less pronounced in areas with larger immigrant populations. Our theoretical model pins down two possible mechanisms explaining these results: a zero-sum game to split scarce public resources between residents and immigrants on the one hand and, on the other, fear of contagion. These also shape the tradeoff between prioritizing residents and extending vaccination programmes to immigrants to lower contagion risk.
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