基于层次分析法和模糊层次分析法的太阳能发电场投资决策分析

Rida Azmi, H. Amar, E. Diop, Cédric Stéphane Tekouabou Koumetio, Jérôme Chenal
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引用次数: 1

摘要

可再生太阳能是目前最理想的无污染清洁能源。马拉喀什萨菲地区(摩洛哥)的干旱和半干旱气候可以确保以绿色经济为导向的可持续能源生产。本文旨在使用层次分析法(AHP)和模糊层次分析法(Fuzzy AHP)进行决策分析,以确定太阳能发电场的潜在区域。所采用的方法使用15个因素来产生两个适宜性图。采用模糊逻辑最小化因子符号的主观性。通过比较理论权重和有效权重,采用敏感性分析(SA)对各因素的权重进行重新评估。采用SA来解释模型之间的差异。结果表明,采用层次分析法和f -层次分析法,适宜建设太阳能发电场的面积占该地区面积的35%以上(1300 Ha)。此外,相似性分析表明,AHP与F-AHP之间32%的不平等区域可以用因子权重和所使用方法的差异来解释。研究区域的气候潜力和地理位置为开发太阳能发电场提供了一个大的合适区域。研究结果为太阳能发电场投资的利益相关者提供了决策支持
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Decision Analysis Related to Solar Farms Investments Based on AHP & Fuzzy AHP for Sustainable Energy Production
Renewable solar energy is the most preferable clean energy source with no environmental impacts. The Marrakech Safi region (Morocco) context, with its arid and semi-arid climate, can ensure sustainable energy production oriented to green economy. The paper aims to perform a decision analysis using the Analysis Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Fuzzy AHP to identify the potential areas for solar farms. The adopted approaches used fifteen factors to produce two suitability maps. Fuzzy logic was used to minimize the subjectivity related to the factor notation. The factors’ weights were reevaluated using the sensitivity analysis (SA) to assess their influence by comparing the theoretical and the effective weights. SA was conducted to explain the difference between the models. Results show that the suitable areas to host the solar farms cover more than 35% (1,300 Ha) of the region, using AHP and F-AHP. Moreover, the similarity analysis performed demonstrated that the 32% unequal areas between AHP and F-AHP can be explained by the factors’ weights and the difference of the approaches used. The climatic potential and the geographic location of the study area offer a large suitable area for exploiting solar farms. Findings constitute decision-making support for stakeholders for solar farm investments
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