基于Coxian分布的工程项目过程模型分析

Y. Tao
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摘要

随着社会经济的发展,工程项目的规模和数量都在迅速增长。工程项目管理的难度也越来越大。传统的管理方法已经越来越不能满足现代工程项目管理的需要。需要新的理论方法来优化工程项目过程。本文将整个工程项目视为一个复杂的系统。这个复杂的系统由一系列子工程项目组成,细化了工程项目管理过程。在假定独立工程项目时间分布服从指数分布的前提下,计算子工程项目的时间。然后在工程项目管理过程中采用协差分布建立计算模型。首先,将工程项目过程划分为几个阶段。然后对每个阶段划分k阶Erlang分布,求解相时分布。在给定子工程项目的基础上,混合各阶段的Erlang分布,得到Coxian分布模型。最后,通过数据分析验证了模型的可行性。结合Coxian分布,将多个工程项目作为一个整体来考虑,研究子项目对整个工程项目的影响。对整个多工程项目过程的完成程度进行数学建模。在实际工程项目中具有一定的理论和实践意义。此外,结果表明,该模型更符合实际情况。
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Model analysis of engineering project process based on Coxian distribution
With the development of social economy, the scale and quantity of engineering projects are growing rapidly. The difficulty of engineering project management is also growing. Traditional management methods have become increasingly unable to meet the needs of modern engineering project management. New theoretical methods are needed to optimize the engineering project process. This paper considers the overall engineering project as a complex system. This complex system is composed of a series of sub-engineering projects and refines the engineering project management process. The time of sub-engineering project is calculated on the assumption that the independent engineering project time distribution obeys the exponential distribution. Then the engineering project management process uses the Coxian distribution to build a calculation model. Firstly, the engineering project process is divided into several phases. Then the k-order Erlang distribution is divided for each stage, and the phase time distribution is solved. Based on the given sub-engineering projects, the Erlang distributions of each stage are mixed to obtain the Coxian distribution model. Finally, the feasibility of the model is verified by data analysis. By combining the Coxian distribution, this paper considers multiple engineering projects as a whole and studies the impact of the sub-engineering projects on the whole engineering project. The completion degree of the entire multi-engineering project process performs mathematical modeling. There are theoretical and practical significance in actual engineering projects. In addition, the results show that the model is more consistent with the reality.
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