俄罗斯自杀和结核病流行病学参数

Y. Razvodovsky
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通信地址:Yury E. Razvodovsky格罗德诺国立医科大学,格罗德诺230009,电话:+375 0152 70 18 84,传真:+375 0152 43 53 41,电子邮件:razvodovsky@tut.by yury_razvodovsky@mail.ru版权©2018 KBCSM,萨格勒布,电子邮件:alcoholism.kbcsm@gmail.com•网址:http://apr.kbcsm.hr摘要结核病和自杀是与医疗和社会问题相关的,这些流行病学参数通常被认为是心理社会困扰的指标。有理论假设和经验证据表明,在个人和群体水平上,自杀与结核病死亡率之间存在正相关关系。本研究的目的是试图确定俄罗斯结核病流行病学参数与自杀率之间的总体水平关系。采用时间序列分析1980 - 2015年结核病发病率/死亡率和自杀率,评价时间序列之间的关系。分析结果表明,结核病死亡率和自杀率在滞后0时存在统计学上显著的关联(r= 0.6;SE = 0.17)。结核病发病率与自杀率之间的关系也是正的,但不太明显(r= 0.4;SE = 0.17)。本研究结果显示,结核病死亡率与自杀率之间存在正相关关系。这些发现间接支持了结核病死亡率可被视为心理社会困扰指标的假设。
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Suicides and Epidemiological Parameters of Tuberculosis in Russia
Correspondence to: Yury E. Razvodovsky Grodno State Medical University, 80 Gorky Street, Grodno 230009, Belarus tel.: + 375 0152 70 18 84, fax: +375 0152 43 53 41, e-mail: razvodovsky@tut.by yury_razvodovsky@mail.ru Copyright © 2018 KBCSM, Zagreb e-mail: alcoholism.kbcsm@gmail.com • www.http://apr.kbcsm.hr Abstract Tuberculosis and suicide are related to medical and social problems, and these epidemiological parameters are often considered as the indicators of psychosocial distress. There are theoretical assumptions and empirical evidence which suggest the positive association between suicide and mortality from tuberculosis at individual and population levels. The aim of this study was an attempt to identify the aggregate level relationship between the epidemiological parameters of tuberculosis and the suicide rates in Russia. Tuberculosis incidence / mortality and suicide rates were analyzed from 1980 to 2015 using time series analysis to evaluate the relationship between time series. The results of the analysis indicate the presence of a statistically significant association between tuberculosis mortality and suicide rates at lag zero (r= 0.6; SE=0.17). The relationship between the incidence of tuberculosis and suicide rates was also positive, but less evident (r= 0.4; SE=0.17). The results of this study suggest a positive aggregate-level relationship between tuberculosis mortality and suicide rates. These findings indirectly support the hypothesis that tuberculosis mortality can be considered as an indicator of psychosocial distress.
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