印度、中国和日本海上贸易依赖的影响

Zeng Xiangyu, Li Jiawei
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引用次数: 2

摘要

印度、中国和日本是亚洲经济三巨头,除了制成品进出口外,在能源和其他自然资源进口方面都严重依赖海上贸易。这种依赖造成了重大的经济、政治和安全影响,因为跨越印度洋和西太平洋的海上贸易交通线容易受到严重的常规/非常规威胁。已采取政策措施以减轻这些脆弱性。这些努力包括加快海洋大国发展、双边主义/多边主义、加强与地区参与者的接触和多样化政策。非常规挑战正在减少,部分原因是有效的应对措施,而传统挑战正在增加,部分原因是主要利益相关者的政策不匹配。印太概念的兴起和海洋区域主义的兴起是一把双刃剑。三国之间需要澄清战略意图并进行有效的政策对话,以实现更和谐的海上接触。需要战略眼光和明智政策,确保合作惠及包括三国在内的所有利益攸关方。
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Implications of maritime trade-dependence of India, China and Japan
ABSTRACT India, China and Japan, the economic big three in Asia, is heavily dependent on maritime trade in terms of importation of energy and other natural resources in addition to import/export of manufactured products. Major economic, political and security impact has been resulted from such a dependence, as the sea-lines of communication for maritime trade across the Indian Ocean and West Pacific is vulnerable to heavy conventional/unconventional threat. Policy measures have been taken in order to mitigate the vulnerabilities. Accelerated development of maritime powers, bilateralism/multilateralism, enhanced engagement with regional players and diversification policies are among such effort. The unconventional challenges are on the decline, partly thanks to effective counter-measures, while the conventional challenges is on the rise, also partly due to the mis-match of policies from major stakeholders. The Rise of Indo-Pacific Concept and the Emerging Maritime Regionalism can be a double-edge sword. Clarification of strategic intention and effective policy dialogue is needed for a more harmonious maritime engagement among the three. Strategic vision and smart policies are needed to ensure a cooperation for the benefit of all stakeholder inclusive of the three countries in particular.
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