阿联酋住宅建筑项目全生命周期成本风险的可靠性和有效性

Ahmed Sadek
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摘要

目的-项目管理成本和风险建模正在经历识别成本风险值以保持准确建模、估计和评估的挑战。最新的研究集中在成本和风险的建模和估计上。成本风险数值的重要性在于它能够用于许多不同的分析和方法。本文旨在确定阿联酋住宅建筑项目在施工前阶段的全生命周期成本风险数值,并确保其可靠性和有效性。方法论-本研究的方法是纯定量的。本研究的方法是通过进行面对面的定量访谈(即成本风险值)来收集数据。调查使用了PMBOK风险矩阵(即,概率vs.影响)。最后,通过数据关联和回归建模,确保各成本风险值的可靠性和有效性。研究发现-本文能够提供可靠有效的住宅项目全生命周期成本风险值(即117个成本风险),可直接用于未来的研究或实际的专业成本分析。对理论、实践和政策的独特贡献-本文对项目管理知识体系的贡献是首次收集了所有相关的成本风险(即117个成本风险),并从阿联酋现场专家那里获得了它们的价值。所提供的值仅适用于阿联酋的住宅项目。在使用数据时,应该考虑本文中如何看待成本风险值的视角(即承包商和客户的观点)。咨询服务组织将有不同的成本风险,因为他们不处理交付最终产品,但他们提供支持服务(即,设计和监督),以促进项目的交付。
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COST RISK’S RELIABILITY AND VALIDITY OF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PROJECT’S WHOLE LIFE CYCLE IN THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
Purpose – Project management cost and risk modelling is experiencing the challenge of identifying cost risks values to maintain accurate modelling, estimating, and assessment. Latest research focused on cost and risk modelling and estimation. The significance of cost risks numerical values come from its ability to be used in many different analysis and approaches. This article aims to identify residential building projects’ whole life cycle cost risks numerical values in UAE at the preconstruction stage and ensure its reliability and validity. Methodology – The approach of this research is pure quantitative. The methodology of this research is to collect data though conducting face-to-face interviews quantitatively (i.e., cost risks values). The survey is using PMBOK risk matrix (i.e., probability vs. impact). Finally, data correlation and regression modelling ware done to ensure the reliability and validity of each cost risk value. Findings – This paper was able to deliver reliable and valid residential project’s whole life cycle cost risks values (i.e., 117 cost risks) for direct use in future research or practical professional cost analysis. Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy – This article contribution to the project management body of knowledge is to collect all relevant cost risks (i.e., 117 cost risks) and obtain their values from UAE field experts for the first time. The provided values are for residential project in UAE only. The perspective of how to look to cost risks values in this article (i.e., contractors’ and clients’ views) should be considered at the time of using the data. The consultancy services organizations will have different cost risks because they do not deal with delivering the final product, but they provide supporting services (i.e., design and supervision) to facilitate delivering the project.
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