哥伦比亚电力定价衍生品描述

S. Prabakaran
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摘要

由于缺乏描述电价行为和定价衍生工具的适当模型,电力市场正在成为学术界的热门研究领域。价格动态模型必须考虑季节性和跳跃的尖峰行为,这似乎很难用标准的跳跃过程来建模。如果没有好的电价动态模型,就很难想到好的期货、远期、掉期和期权定价模型。本文试图从哥伦比亚电力市场中引入一种基于直觉的衍生品定价算法。本研究的主要目标有四个方面:1)首先,我们通过简单的随机电价模型开始我们的方法。2)接下来,我们用不同的衍生工具推导了电力衍生品价格的分析公式。3)进一步完善了电力现货市场价格风险模型;4)最后构建了哥伦比亚电力市场物理测度下的模型估计。最后以结束语结束本文。
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Description of Colombian Electricity Pricing Derivatives
Electricity markets are becoming a popular field of research amongst academics because of the lack of appropriate models for describing electricity price behavior and pricing derivatives instruments. Models for price dynamics must consider seasonality and spiky behavior of jumps which seem hard to model by standard jump process. Without good models for electricity price dynamics, it is difficult to think about good models for futures, forward, swaps and option pricing. In this paper we attempt to introduce an algorithm for pricing derivatives to intuition from Colombian electricity market. The main ambition of this study is fourfold:  1) First we begin our approach through to simple stochastic models for electricity pricing. 2) Next, we derive analytical formulas for prices of electricity derivatives with different derivatives tools. 3) Then we extent short of the model for price risk in the electricity spot market 4) Finally we construct the model estimation under the physical measures for Colombian electricity market. And this paper end with conclusion.
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