区域合并变体的定性评价模型

S. Sadov
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摘要

本文分析了俄罗斯联邦各地区合并为一个统一的分联邦区的原因。它体现了这种转变的积极和消极后果。结论是,国内外的科学都没有给出如何评价区域合并经济效应的答案。考虑了区域合并后果的定性评估过程中出现的问题,以及合并变体的排名。它们是用有序变量来解决的——用点(秩)来表示对所研究区域合并成功的影响因素的尺度等级——以及根据吸引力来区分变量的过中位数秩法。排名是由专家分配给每个比较变量的给定范围内的整数。它们适用于解决那些对结果指标自然进行定性而非定量解释的任务,如果可以对影响结果的参数(因素)进行同样的解释。本文考察了科米共和国的一个典型例子:将其与七个相邻地区之一合并是否有效。通过超中值秩法确定与相邻区域合并的优先级
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The Qualitative Assessment Model for Variants of Merging of Regions
The paper analyses reasons for merging of regions of the Russian Federation into a united subfederal region. It manifests positive and negative consequences of such transformation. It is concluded that neither domestic nor foreign sciences give an answer to the question of how to assess the economic effect from merging of regions. The problems that arise during the qualitative assessment of the consequences from merging of regions are considered, as well as rankings of variants of merging. They are solved with ordinal variables—gradations of scale that state in points (ranks) the factor’s influence on the success of merging of regions under study—and with the overmedian ranks method which differentiate variants according to their attractiveness. Ranks are integers on a given range assigned to each of the compared variants by experts. They are suitable for solving those tasks which have their resulting indicators naturally interpreted qualitatively rather than quantitatively, and if the same interpretation can be given to the parameters (factors) influencing the result. The article examines a model example of the Komi Republic: whether it is effective to merge it with one of the seven neighboring regions. The priority of merging with one of the neighboring regions is identified by the overmedian ranks method
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