基于DPSIR和模糊物元模型的应急物流系统脆弱性评价研究

Shuai Hao, Hongmei Shan, Jiapan Wang
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摘要

随着全球突发事件的频繁发生,灾害应急管理面临着巨大的挑战。应急物流系统作为一项重要的救援保障措施,由于外部因素的干扰和内部因素的不稳定性,面临着脆弱性问题。为解决应急物流系统脆弱性问题,本文基于DPSIR模型(驱动力、压力、状态、影响和响应)构建了应急物流系统脆弱性综合评价指标体系。本文提出了基于模糊物元法的ELS脆弱性评价模型,并以陕西省2010 - 2019年数据为例进行了实证研究。实证结果表明,陕西省应急物流系统的脆弱性呈逐年下降趋势,表明陕西省应急物流系统的响应能力正在逐步提高。该研究为评估应急物流的脆弱性,提高系统的响应能力提供了新的视角。Keywords-vulnerability;应急物流系统;DPSIR模型;模糊物元模型
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Study on Vulnerability Evaluation of Emergency Logistics System Based on DPSIR and Fuzzy Matter-Element Model
With the frequent occurrence of global emergencies, emergency management under disaster is facing great challenges. As an important rescue support measurement, the emergency logistics system (ELS) faces vulnerability problems due to the interference of external factors and instability of the internal factors. In order to solve the problem of vulnerability of ELS, this paper builds a comprehensive vulnerability evaluation index system of emergency logistics system on the basis of DPSIR model (Driving force, Pressure, State, Impact and Response). While this paper proposes a vulnerability evaluation model of ELS based on Fuzzy Matter-Element Method, and conducts a case study to verify the feasibility with the data of Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2019. The empirical results show that the vulnerability of the emergency logistics system in Shaanxi Province is decreasing year by year, which indicates that the responsive capability of the ELS in Shaanxi Province is gradually improving. The study provides a new insight to estimate the vulnerability of emergency logistics and increase the responsive capacity of the system. Keywords-vulnerability; emergency logistics system; DPSIR model; fuzzy matter-element model
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