衡量和分析伊拉克公共债务的选定决定因素(2004-2019)

Sazan Tahir Saeed, Nyaz Najmalddin Noori
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摘要

本研究对2004年至2019年伊拉克公共债务的选定决定因素进行了测量和分析。本文首先回顾了在复兴党政权倒台之前导致国家防范风险借贷能力恶化的重大事件。然后转向所研究的时期,并应用基于伊拉克中央银行数据的完全修正OLS(FMOLS)协整框架。主要结果表明,公共债务是由多种因素造成的,包括非石油收入的一小部分,以牺牲政府投资支出为代价的运营支出增加,以及ISIS的袭击。它还触及宗派主义和公共债务之间的联系,并探讨债务服务对累积的公共债务的负担。它的结论是,预算赤字增加的风险始终存在;因此,管理公共债务的适当计划对于防止债务违约至关重要。
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Measuring and Analyzing Selected Determinants of Public Debt in Iraq (2004-2019)
This study examines the measuring and analyzing selected determinants of public debt in Iraq from 2004 to 2019. It first reviews the major events that led to deterioration of the state’s capacity in preventing risky borrow- ings before the fall of the Ba’ath regime. It then turns to the period under study, and applies the Fully Modified OLS )FMOLS( cointegration framework based on data from the central bank of Iraq. The main results show that public debt has been caused by a mixture of factors including a small share of non-oil revenue, increasing operational expenditure at the expense of investment expenditure by the government, and the ISIS attack. It also touches on the link between sectarianism and public debt, and explores the burden of debt services on ac- cumulating public debt. It concludes that there is always a risk of increasing budget deficit; thus, a proper plan for managing public debt is vital to prevent a debt default.
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