天然气工业对尼日利亚可持续经济的影响:通过Eview进一步估计

M. Ojide, Salami Dada Kareem, F. Kari, Alam Gazi, Oke David Matuin
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引用次数: 14

摘要

可持续经济发展的一个关键政策目标,特别是在尼日利亚这样的任何发展中国家,是建立既经济有效又可持续的能源发展道路。然而,这在很大程度上取决于这些资源的充分利用。本文采用分布式滞后(DL)模型、虚拟变量回归模型和协整分析来评估天然气利用对尼日利亚经济的影响和可持续性。还审查了尼日利亚的天然气燃烧结构与对燃烧气体征收罚款的关系。回归结果和协整分析表明,在给定3年的时滞条件下,尼日利亚天然气的利用对经济的影响为正;它也是可持续的。另一方面,虽然对燃烧气体征收罚款有可能结束或减少燃烧;自1984年实施以来,它没有显著导致耀斑水平的任何结构变化(滑动斜率)。因此,政府需要经常使用监管影响分析(RIA)来评估其政策实施。
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Impact of Gas Industry on Sustainable Economy in Nigeria: Further Estimations Through Eview
A key policy objective of sustainable economic development, especially in any developing country like Nigeria, is to establish energy development paths that are both economically efficient and sustainable. However, this depends significantly on full utilization of such resources. Distributed Lag (DL) model, dummy variable regression model and co-integration analyses were used in this paper to evaluate the impact and sustainability of Gas utilization in the Nigerian economy. The structure of gas flaring in Nigeria in relation to the imposition of fine on flared gas was also examined. The regression results and the co-integration analysis show that utilization of Nigerian natural gas impacts positively on the economy given three-year time lag; it is also sustainable. On the other hand, although the imposition of fine on flared gas has the potential to end or reduce flares; it has not significantly led to any structural change (sliding slope) on the level of flares since its imposition in 1984. Hence there is need for government to always employ Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) to evaluate its policy implementations.
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