IMPLEMENTATION OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING MODELS IN THE NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY FINANCIAL DATA

Financial data especially the natural gas industry that will be projected must have high accuracy. Problems: These data are time-series data and contain heteroscedasticity so that they require forecasting models with low error rates. The data used in the study are daily financial data from natural gas from 2014 to 2019. Short-term forecasting model (GARCH) which has the advantage of modeling data with heteroscedasticity. AR1, GARCH 1.1 short-term forecasting model is stated as a model that has the advantage of modeling data with a high degree of accuracy. The forecasting model can be used by various parties in finding the accuracy of information to come so that planning decisions have been prepared and prepared.