正态分布应该是正态分布吗?学生的T选项

A. Bartkowiak
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引用次数: 12

摘要

在本文中,我们试图回答,高斯分布-被广泛称为“正态”分布-是否真的是基本的,自然的和正态的。特别地,我们研究了上述陈述如何符合真实数据的分布,即一些股票指数的日收益。这是作者以前的经验,当观察真实数据的分布时,很难找到一个“正态”分布,即高斯分布。从本质上讲,这些数据是异构的。如果是这样,那么应该对数据进行建模,考虑到它们可能的异质性。这可以通过混合模型来实现,混合模型由有限或无限数量的成分组成。学生的T(单变量或多变量)是分布的一个突出例子,它可以作为无限小数量高斯分布的混合物来获得。通过一个应用于金融时间序列的例子,即WIG20指数和标准普尔500指数的日收益,说明了这些考虑。我们展示了为什么正常(即。“高斯性”)应该被拒绝,为什么“t”分布是可信的。
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Should Normal Distribution be Normal? The Student's T Alternative
In the paper we try to answer, whether the Gaussian distribution - called widely the 'normal' distribution - is really basic, natural and normal. In particular, we investigate how the above statement conforms with the distribution of real data, namely daily returns of some stock indexes. It was the authors former experience that, when looking at the distributions of real data, it was very difficult to find there a 'normal', i.e. Gaussian distribution. The data, by their nature, are heterogeneous. If so, then the data should be modelled taking into account their possible heterogeneity. This can be done using mixture models - with mixtures composed from finite or infinite number of components. Students' T (univariate or multivariate) is one prominent example of distributions which may be obtained as a mixture of infinitesimal number of Gaussian distributions. The considerations are illustrated by an example of application to financial time series, namely daily returns of the indexes WIG20 and S&P500. We show, why the normality (i.e. 'Gaussianity') should be rejected and why the 't' distribution is plausible.
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