From optimism to pessimism: The stability of the Euro FX market in the short and long run

Abstract. We review the EU’s actions over the euro’s lifetime; since its introduction thru to the populist uprising of the late 2010s. The euro was introduced on a wave of optimism throughout the EU, although based on a compromised monetary agreement. Essentially, underlining the crisis and movement from optimism to pessimism in the EU integration road. Thus, it is hard to analyse the euro without reviewing the theories influencing this road. Furthermore, we analyse the long and short-run market stability of the euro FX market using the variance bound model of (Fakhry & Richter, 2018). However, it is difficult to explain the market analysis without referencing behavioural finance. Thus we use key elements of behavioural finance, such as the opposite scale behaviours of greed and fear, to fully explain the timeline analysis of the euro FX market stability in both the long and short runs. At first glance, the result was unexpected due to the critical factor that the market was significantly volatile in the long run; despite conventional wisdom dictating that in the long-run, the financial markets are generally stable. One possible explanation is that the market participants are fearful of the long-run future of the Euro. Keywords. Behavioural Finance, EU Integration, Euro, Euro Crises, Long/Short Run, Market Stability. JEL. C58, D81, G01, G02, H77.