宏观经济学真的有问题吗?

R. Reis
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引用次数: 66

摘要

虽然今天的宏观经济学有很多问题,但大多数对宏观经济学现状的批评都偏离了目标。当前的宏观经济研究并不是盲目的DSGE模型,充斥着荒谬的假设和对数据的忽视。相反,年轻的宏观经济学家正在从事充满活力、多样化和令人兴奋的工作,他们找到了工作,并发表了自己的作品。宏观经济学对经济政策的影响只是适度的,与经济学的其他领域没有太大的不同。货币政策在控制通货膨胀和防止新的大萧条方面从这一建议中受益匪浅。宏观经济预测的绝对表现不佳,考虑到挑战的规模,这种情况可能永远都是如此。但相对于聚合水平、时间跨度和资金量而言,它们并不比其他领域差那么明显。当今宏观经济学最大的问题或许在于,对于应该教授哪些模型的讨论太少,对研究生水平的教科书的投入也太少。
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Is Something Really Wrong with Macroeconomics?
While there is much that is wrong with macroeconomics today, most critiques of the state of macroeconomics are off target. Current macroeconomic research is not mindless DSGE modeling filled with ridiculous assumptions and oblivious of data. Rather, young macroeconomists are doing vibrant, varied, and exciting work, getting jobs, and being published. Macroeconomics informs economic policy only moderately and not more nor all that differently than other fields in economics. Monetary policy has benefitted significantly from this advice in keeping inflation under control and preventing a new Great Depression. Macroeconomic forecasts perform poorly in absolute terms and given the size of the challenge probably always will. But relative to the level of aggregation, the time horizon, and the amount of funding, they are not so obviously worst than those in other fields. What is most wrong with macroeconomics today is perhaps that there is too little discussion of which models to teach and too little investment in graduate-level textbooks.
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