棕榈油的未来:战争时期(货币战争)

Ali Muhammad Lakdawala
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引用次数: 0

摘要

战争的目的是削弱敌人的意志和经济能力。这听起来可能令人惊讶,但通过市场攻击来破坏财富可能比摧毁敌人的船/飞机更有效,当涉及到削弱对手时。中国有超过数万亿美元的投资,美元贬值的每一个百分比显然是由“美联储”设计的,代表着数十亿美元的真正财富从中国转移到美国。当然,任何国家都可以在一定程度上采取行动,中国人民银行最近在管理自己的货币方面的干预只是冰山一角。“货币/金融”战争是无边界战争的未来。这样的战争可以压制国家甚至全球银行体系:当银行停止,信贷停止,当信贷停止,贸易停止,当贸易停止,经济崩溃。由此产生的影响是,各个部门/部分的商品价格跌至2008-2009年经济衰退期间的低点。棕榈油和棕榈油生产中心都不受此类全球事件的影响。那么,战争开始了吗??最近的事件确实暗示了这一点,但现在下结论还为时过早。本文将探讨货币之间的关系及其对商品的直接影响,这是当前结构性转变的结果。尽管棕榈油价格受到了重大影响,反过来使出口国的健康受到了影响,但进口国的粮食需求是否受到了影响,或者进口国已经停止消费,还是已经开始自己生产??将对此进行详细探讨(消费中心)。此外,本文将探讨出口中心如何通过探索与进口中心的贸易条件,通过探索贸易货币(打破美国霸权)等方式,利用这种危机(从18年前见证的“亚洲金融危机”中快速吸取一些教训)。最后总结了需要关注的事件,分析了棕榈油的市场结构,并对2016年棕榈油价格进行了预测。
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Future of Palm Oil: During the Time of War (Currency War)
Purpose of the war is to degrade the enemy's will and economic capacity. It may sound surprising but wealth destruction through a market attack can be more effective than taking out enemy's ship/aircraft, when it comes to disabling an opponent. Just to narrate China has over trillions of investment denominated is US dollar and every percentage of devaluation of dollar obviously engineered by "FED" represents a billons of real wealth transfer from China to US. Surely any country can take it up to certain extend and recent intervention by PBOC in managing its own currency is only tip of the iceberg reply to US."Currency/Financial" war is the future of boundaryless warfare.Such war can clamp down countries or even global banking system: When Banking stops, Credit stops, and when Credit stops, Trade stops and when Trade stops, ECONOMY CRUMBLES. Resultant impact of which was felt on commodities across sectors/segment wherein prices tanked to the lows witnessed during recessionary period of 2008-2009. Palm Oil nor Palm Oil producing centres are insulated from such global events. So, is the War ON??? Recent events does hint towards the same but it’s too early to conclude. Paper will explore the relationship between currency & its direct impact on commodities, as a result of current tectonic shift. Even though palm oil prices has been significantly impacted in turn making health of exporting countries to ponder upon but has there been any impact on food demand of importing countries or has importing countries stopped consuming or has it started to produce on its own??? It will be explored in detail (consumption centres).Further to that paper will explore on how exporting centres can use such crisis to its advantage (taking some quick bites from event witnessed 18years back "Asian Financial Crisis") by exploring terms of trade with importing centres, by exploring currency of trade (breaking US hegemony), etc. Finally concluding with events to watchful about and analysing the market structure of palm oil and thereafter estimating the palm price forecasts for 2016.
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