二元分位数回归中变量选择与估计的贝叶斯新方法

Mai Dao, Min Wang, Souparno Ghosh
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摘要

本文提出了一种贝叶斯层次模型和相应的计算策略,用于同时进行二元分位数回归的参数估计和变量选择。我们在误差项上指定习惯的非对称拉普拉斯分布,并在回归系数和二元向量上分配分位数相关的先验,以识别模型配置。由于非对称拉普拉斯分布的正态-指数混合表示,我们继续开发一种新的三阶段计算方案,从期望最大化算法开始,然后是Gibbs采样器,然后是一个重要的重加权步骤,从未知参数的完全后验分布中提取几乎独立的马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗样本。通过仿真研究,将所提出的贝叶斯方法与文献中已有的几种贝叶斯方法的性能进行了比较。最后,为了说明目的,提供了两个实际数据应用。
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A novel Bayesian method for variable selection and estimation in binary quantile regression
In this paper, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model and associated computation strategy for simultaneously conducting parameter estimation and variable selection in binary quantile regression. We specify customary asymmetric Laplace distribution on the error term and assign quantile‐dependent priors on the regression coefficients and a binary vector to identify the model configuration. Thanks to the normal‐exponential mixture representation of the asymmetric Laplace distribution, we proceed to develop a novel three‐stage computational scheme starting with an expectation–maximization algorithm and then the Gibbs sampler followed by an importance re‐weighting step to draw nearly independent Markov chain Monte Carlo samples from the full posterior distributions of the unknown parameters. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the performance of the proposed Bayesian method with that of several existing ones in the literature. Finally, two real‐data applications are provided for illustrative purposes.
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