基于PCA的绞吸式挖泥船产量预测

Wei Wang, Bozhen Guo, Yiming Bai, Yongsheng Zhao
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摘要

为了保证绞吸式挖泥船的工作效率,有必要对其瞬时产量进行准确的预测。在实际作业过程中,挖泥船的动态特性非常复杂,影响瞬时生产的因素很多。为了保证挖泥船的顺利输出,操作人员主要参考六个指标:左旋绞车转速、右旋绞车转速、切割机深度、1#甲板泵转速、2#甲板泵转速、切割机转速来疏浚作业。本文对6个控制因素进行主成分分析,得到了5个主要影响因素,分别是左旋绞车转速、右旋绞车转速、切刀深度、1#甲板泵转速和切刀转速。然后,根据各因子在主成分分析结果中所占的平均比例,对输入变量进行约简。四个主要影响因素是左旋绞车速度、右旋绞车速度、刀具深度和刀具速度。在系统仿真建模中,将上述5个主要因素和4个主要因素作为GRNN(广义回归神经网络)的输入变量,将瞬时产量作为GRNN的输出变量,建立绞吸式挖泥船瞬时产量的预测模型。预测结果表明,在减少输入变量的情况下,神经网络模型仍能保持较好的预测精度。因此,主成分分析可以简化神经网络的设计,为疏浚作业的操作者提供实时的瞬时生产参考。
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The Production Prediction of Cutter Suction Dredger Based on PCA
In order to ensure the working efficiency of the cutter suction dredger, it is necessary to predict its momentary production accurately. In the actual operation process, the dynamic characteristics of the dredger are very complicated, and many factors affect the momentary production. In order to ensure the smooth output of the dredger, the operator mainly refers the six indicators: the left swing winch speed, the right swing winch speed, the cutter depth, the 1# deck pump speed, the 2# deck pump speed, and the cutter speed to dredging operation. In this paper, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is performed on the six control factors, and the five main influencing factors are obtained, which are the left swing winch speed, the right swing winch speed, the cutter depth, the 1# deck pump speed, and the cutter speed. Then, according to the average proportion of each factor in the principal component analysis results, the input variables are reduced. The four main influencing factors are the left swing winch speed, the right swing winch speed, the cutter depth, and the cutter speed. In the system simulation modeling, the above five main factors and four main factors are used as the input variables of the GRNN(Generalized Regression Neural Network), and the momentary production is used as the output variable of the GRNN to establish the prediction model of momentary production of the cutter suction dredger. The prediction results show that the neural network model can still maintain good prediction accuracy while reducing the input variables. Therefore, Principal Component Analysis can be used to simplify neural network design and provide real-time momentary production reference for operators on the dredging operation.
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