湿度对罗马尼亚COVID-19日病例演变的影响——基于数据的研究

I. Clitan, V. Muresan, M. Abrudean, Andrei F. Clitan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在积极研究环境因素对COVID-19感染率的影响(湿度对SARS COV-2病毒传播的正面或负面影响存在分歧)后,作者能够在罗马尼亚获得相对湿度(RH)对SARS COV-2病毒传播影响的量化效应,从而获得RH对未来每日COVID-19阳性病例数的影响。通过计算机软件验证了所讨论的量化,并借助于一个数学模型,该模型基于复杂的神经网络结构,使用作者自己设计的工具,使用跟踪2020年3月至2020年10月每日COVID-19病例演变的一致数据进行训练,预测了28天内COVID-19疾病的结果。经验证的量化结果显示,由于气候温和,RH对COVID-19日感染增加的最大影响在60% - 70%之间,而高于90%的RH则为零影响。
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Influence of Humidity on the Evolution of COVID-19 Daily Cases in Romania — Data Based Study
Upon an active research regarding the influence of environmental factors on the COVID-19 infection rate, that denoted a divided opinion between a positive or negative influence in term of humidity and the SARS COV-2 virus spread, the authors were able to obtain a quantification effect of relative humidity (RH) influence on the spread of SARS COV-2 virus, in Romania, and consequently the influence of RH on the future number of daily COVID-19 positive cases. The discussed quantification was validated by means of computer software, and the aid of a mathematical model that predicts the outcome of COVID-19 disease on a horizon of 28 days, based on a complex neural network structure, trained using consistent data tracking the evolution of daily COVID-19 cases from March 2020 till October 2020, tool designed by the authors themselves. The validated quantification revealed that the maximum influence of RH on the increase of daily COVID-19 infections is between 60% - 70%, due to the temperate climate, while zero influence occurs at a RH higher than 90%.
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