尼泊尔观测到的极端气候

R. P. Awasthi, J. Owen
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引用次数: 1

摘要

气候灾害每年造成的经济和人员损失占自然灾害总损失的一半以上,阻碍了该国的社会经济发展。近几十年来,这些由极端气候引起的灾害正变得越来越明显和具有破坏性,并且由于人为变暖而进一步加剧。在此背景下,本研究试图弥补尼泊尔极端温度和降水时空变化的研究空白。本文利用RClimDex软件对90个气象站的温度(13)和降水(13)26个世界气象组织推荐的气候极端指数进行了计算。利用Mann-Kendall方法检验各指标长期趋势的统计显著性,并利用Sens斜率法对各站各指标的真实趋势幅度进行确定。总体而言,热(暖日、暖夜、夏日、热带夜、暖期)极端指数和冷(冷日、冷夜、冷期)极端指数分别呈现显著的正、负趋势。极端降水指数也呈增加趋势,但统计显著性和空间相干性较低。山地和喜马拉雅地区的极端气温比其他地区增加得更多。极端湿日降水事件在远西部地区、中西部和西部相邻地区显著增加,然后在中东部山区和喜马拉雅地区显著增加。
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Observed Climate Extreme in Nepal
The climate-induced disasters are causing more than half of the total economic and human losses annually due to natural disasters and that hampers the socioeconomic development of the country. In recent decades, these climate extreme induced disasters are increasingly becoming more pronounced and devastating, is further known to be intensified due to anthropogenic warming. In this context, this study endeavors to address the research gap on the spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation extremes in Nepal. Here, 26 climate extreme indices of temperature (13) and precipitation (13) as recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) were calculated using RClimDex software for 90 meteorological stations. Then the statistical significance of the long-term trend of the indices was tested using the Mann-Kendall method, and true magnitude of the trend was identified utilizing Sens’ slope method for each index at each station. Overall, the hot (warm days, warm nights, summer days, tropical nights, and warm spells) and cold (cold days, cold nights, cold spells) extreme indices show significant positive and negative trends respectively. However, extreme precipitation indices also show an increasing trend, but the statistical significance and spatial coherence is low. Extreme temperatures increased more in the Mountain and Himalayan regions than the other regions. Extreme wet day precipitation events are significantly increasing in far western region, adjoining areas of mid-western and western Siwalik though Mountain regions and then again in the central and eastern Mountains and Himalayan regions.
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