利用Excel求解器估计利比亚Al-Aziziyah风速资料的威布尔分布参数

M. Z. Ahmed, Hosni Mokhtar Ali, Rida Emhammed Khamiss
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引用次数: 1

摘要

近年来,威布尔分布是文献中广泛使用、可接受和建议的风速频率分布。本文利用excel求解工具(EST)对Hosni Mokhtar等[1]的论文中风速数据的威布尔分布系数估计进行了改进,该论文对利比亚al - aziziyah市计算威布尔分布参数的7种方法进行了评估,结果表明:修正最大似然法(MML)、最大似然法(MLM)和实证法(EMJ)是最合适的方法。采用现场不同高度的各种拟合优度试验来评价这些方法的适用性。比较了早期和当前调查中功率密度估计结果的相对不准确性,以说明使用求解器excel工具的准确性。本研究的结果表明,使用求解器excel估计威布尔参数是一种可行的选择,并且可能比其他方法更合适。无害环境技术的一个最重要的好处是,它不需要制定复杂的数学方程式,而这些方程式需要使用困难的数值技术来求解。如果只知道风速分布,估计威布尔参数相对简单。
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Estimation of Weibull Distribution Parameters by Using Excel Solver Tool for Wind Speed Data at Al-Aziziyah, Libya
In latest years, the Weibull distribution was a widely used, acceptable, and suggested distribution for expressing the wind speed frequency distribution in literatures. In this paper, the excel solver tool (EST) was used to improve the estimation of the Weibull distribution coefficients for the wind speed data used in the paper presented by Hosni Mokhtar, et al. [1], which studies the assessment of seven methods for calculating the Weibull distribution parameters for Al-Aziziyah city, Libya, with the results indicating that the Modified Maximum Likelihood Method (MML), Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM) and Empirical method of Justus (EMJ) are the most appropriate methods. Various goodness of fit tests at different heights at site are used to evaluate the applicability of these methods. A comparing of relative inaccuracy of power density estimate findings from earlier and current investigations is also carried out to illustrate the accuracy of employing a solver excel tool. The findings of this study show that using solver excel to estimate Weibull parameters is a viable option, and that it may be more suitable than other approaches. A most significant benefit of EST is that it does not need the formulation of complicated mathematical equations that require the use of difficult numerical techniques to solve. It’s relatively simple to estimate the Weibull parameters if simply the wind speed distribution is known.
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