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引用次数: 3

摘要

城镇化是各国经济社会发展过程中的普遍规律,建筑业是国民经济中重要的物质生产部门,因此城镇化与建筑业的联动研究对于经济社会的健康发展具有重要意义。本文运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验建立VAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法分析城市化与建筑业的动态关系,解决如何测度城市化与建筑业的相关结构问题。研究表明,城镇化与建筑业之间仅存在一个协整关系,建筑业对城镇化有格兰杰作用,而城镇化对建筑业没有格兰杰作用,建筑业对城镇化的促进作用日益增强,但城镇化对建筑业的促进作用不明显。建筑业可以用城市化的波动来解释,但城市化不能解释建筑业的波动。
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Linkage studies of China's urbanization and construction industry
Urbanization is the universal law in the process of all countries' economic and social development, construction industry is an important material production sector of the national economy, so linkage studies of urbanization and construction industry have great significance for the healthy development of economic and social. The paper uses co integration test, Granger causality test to establish VAR model, and analysis the dynamic relationship between urbanization and the construction industry with impulse response function and variance decomposition to solve the problem of how to measure the correlation structure between urbanization and the construction industry. Research shows that there is only one co integration relationship between urbanization and the construction industry, the construction industry does Granger cause urbanization but urbanization does not Granger cause the construction industry, and construction industry increasingly promotes urbanization but the promoting function of urbanization on construction industry is not obvious, the construction industry can be explained by the fluctuation of urbanization but urbanization cannot explain the construction industry's fluctuations.
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