韩英FTA改善谈判与新贸易环境分析

Jong-Kwon Kim
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摘要

▽分析目的:通过韩英FTA改善协商,利用IPEF分析FTA在数字经济和贸易领域的进展,分析新的贸易环境,为贸易实践提供启示。▽设计/方法/方法=分析了韩英自由贸易协定(FTA)达成前后的年进出口增长率(同比),并对2022年和2023年进行了预测。2000 ~ 2021年的数据是根据韩国银行的《经济统计系统》得出的。2021年的增长率为33.20%,继2004年(36.95%)之后,进入21世纪以来的第二高。以2022年和2023年为例,通过ARIMA(1,1,0)模型进行估算。据调查,韩英自由贸易协定(FTA)签订后,韩英两国的进出口总额有所增加。▽结果=展望未来,通过改善SCM、数字经济、贸易等领域的协商,将更加积极地推进尖端产业的共同合作和研究开发(R&D)投资。▽研究意义=美国目前正在强调光纤、半导体、电动汽车以及与全球供应链相关的关键零部件的美国生产。因此,韩英自由贸易协定改善谈判和框架需要在美国半导体、科学法、通货膨胀抑制法等尖端产业的美国全球供应链重组中进行共同合作和研发投资。
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An Analysis of Korea-UK FTA Improvement Negotiations and the New Trade Environment
Purpose – The aim of this analysis is to provide implications for trade practice by analyzing FTA progress in the digital economy and trade field with IPEF through FTA improvement negotiations between Korea and the UK, and an analysis of the new trade environment. Design/Methodology/Approach – The annual export/import growth rate (year-on-year) before and after the Korea-UK FTA was concluded and forecasts for 2022 and 2023 were reviewed. This data from 2000 to 2021 are based on the Economic Statistical System of the Bank of Korea. It recorded 33.20% in 2021, the second highest growth rate since the 2000s, after recording 36.95% in 2004. It was estimated through the model of ARIMA (1, 1, 0) in the case of 2022 and 2023. After the Korea-UK FTA was concluded, it was found that the trade volume of Korea-UK combined exports and imports increased. Findings – In the future, it is expected that joint cooperation and R&D investment in high-tech and hightech industries will be more actively developed through improvement negotiations in the fields of SCM, digital economy, and trade. Research Implications – The US is currently emphasizing US production of optical fibers, semiconductors, and electric vehicles as well as key parts in relation to the global supply chain. Therefore, the Korea-UK FTA improvement negotiation and framework require joint cooperation and R&D investment in the reorganization of the US global supply chain in cutting-edge industries, including US semiconductors, science law, and inflation reduction laws.
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