同性-异性配对回归模型:同性配对数据的计量经济学预测模型

Ntogwa N. Bundala
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摘要

本研究旨在检验纽约证券交易所、纳斯达克和标准普尔500指数股票交易所市场的技术和基本假设。研究的主要决定因素(变量)是股票交易量、收盘价和证券交易所市场上可用的股票信息。系统采集2021年6月至2022年6月期间纽约证券交易所、标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克证券交易所240天、197天和253天的收盘股价和成交量数据。采用异质配对(HHP)回归模型对数据进行分析。这个模型是用来检测数据的线性和非线性行为的。研究证明,纽约证券交易所、标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克证券交易所市场的技术假设和基本假设都是由两种不同配对类别的逆模型和s曲线模型定义的,即正负配对(PPP)类和正负配对(NPP)类。本研究的结论是,股票市场上的基本面主义者对股票价格或收益的预测是最优的。研究建议,股票投资者应优先使用基本假设进行组合投资决策。此外,本研究建议将HHP回归模型应用于金融市场、经济学、心理学、社会学和医学研究。此外,在水动力和冲淤过程的研究中,推荐了HHP回归模型用于水波的预测
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Homo-Hetero Pairing Regression Model: An Econometric Predictive Model of Homo Paired Data
The study aimed to examine the technical and fundamental hypotheses in NYSE, NASDAQ and S&P 500 stock exchange markets. The main determinants (variables) that were examined were stock trading volumes, closing stock prices and stock information available in the stock exchange market. The 240 days, 197 days and 253 days data of closing stock prices and trading volumes at NYSE, S&P500 and NASDAQ stock exchange markets were systematically collected from June 2021 to June 2022. The data was analysed by using the Homo-Hetero Pairing (HHP) Regression Model. This model was developed to detect the linear and non-linear behaviour of data. The study evidenced that both the technical and fundamental hypotheses in  NYSE, S&P500 and NASDAQ stock exchange markets are defined by the inverse and S-curved models in two distinctive pairing classes called the positive-positive pairing (PPP) class and the negative-positive pairing (NPP) class. The study concluded that the optimal prediction of the stock price or return is achieved by the fundamentalists in the stock exchange markets. The study recommends that stock investors should priorities the use of the fundamental hypothesis to make their portfolio investment decision. Moreover, the study recommends the application of the HHP regression model in financial markets, economics, psychology, sociology, and medicine studies.  In addition, the HHP regression model is recommended for the prediction of water waves in the investigation of hydrodynamic and erosion-accretion processes
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