全球气候变化背景下沿海洪涝灾害风险评估研究进展与展望

Jiayi Fang, P. Shi
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引用次数: 1

摘要

全球气候变化下的海平面上升以及因涨潮和风暴潮导致的极端海平面引发的沿海洪水对沿海社会、经济和自然环境产生了巨大的影响。它引起了全球科研人员的高度关注。本文从广义和狭义两方面考察了海岸洪水的定义和构成要素,并重点研究了狭义海岸洪水的构成要素。本文以自然灾害系统理论为基础,系统总结了中国沿海洪水研究的进展,探讨了目前研究中存在的问题,并提出了未来的研究方向。未来的研究需要加强沿海地区适应气候变化的研究,包括气候变化下的多灾害风险和灾害影响的不确定性研究、沿海热点地区关键暴露点(关键基础设施)风险评估、沿海地区适应和减缓措施的成本效益分析等。应该更加重视提高沿海地区在气候变化下的适应能力。研究界还应建立学科间的数据共享机制,以满足未来风险评估的需要,从而更加全面、系统、动态地研究沿海问题。
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Research progress and prospect of coastal flood disaster risk assessment against global climate change
The sea level rise under global climate change and coastal floods caused by extreme sea levels due to the high tide levels and storm surges have huge impacts on coastal society, economy, and natural environment. It has drawn great attention from global scientific researchers. This study examines the definitions and elements of coastal flooding in the general and narrow senses, and mainly focuses on the components of coastal flooding in the narrow sense. Based on the natural disaster system theory, the review systematically summarizes the progress of coastal flood research in China, and then discusses existing problems in present studies and provide future research directions with regard to this issue. It is proposed that future studies need to strengthen research on adapting to climate change in coastal areas, including studies on the risk of multi- hazards and uncertainties of hazard impacts under climate change, risk assessment of key exposure (critical infrastructure) in coastal hotspots, and cost-benefit analysis of adaptation and mitigation measures in coastal areas. Efforts to improve the resilience of coastal areas under climate change should be given more attention. The research community also should establish the mechanism of data sharing among disciplines to meet the needs of future risk assessments, so that coastal issues can be more comprehensively, systematically, and dynamically studied.
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