{"title":"周期相位动力学的经济指标分析与马尔可夫转换方法之比较","authors":"Pami Dua, Vineeta D. Sharma","doi":"10.1787/JBCMA-2015-5JM22PFHMHLP","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper compares the dating of growth rate cycles obtained from a Markov switching approach with the reference chronologies based on Economic Indicator Analysis (EIA) given by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), focusing on a set of developed and emerging economies. The developed countries include US, UK, Germany and Japan, which are compared with an emerging economy, India. Using a univariate Markov regime switching model we characterise growth rate cycle phenomena for these countries by identifying turning points and distinct economic regimes, employing data on the growth rate of the coincident index given by ECRI.","PeriodicalId":313514,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2016-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"8","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A comparison of economic indicator analysis and Markov switching methods concerning the cycle phase dynamics: report\",\"authors\":\"Pami Dua, Vineeta D. Sharma\",\"doi\":\"10.1787/JBCMA-2015-5JM22PFHMHLP\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper compares the dating of growth rate cycles obtained from a Markov switching approach with the reference chronologies based on Economic Indicator Analysis (EIA) given by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), focusing on a set of developed and emerging economies. The developed countries include US, UK, Germany and Japan, which are compared with an emerging economy, India. Using a univariate Markov regime switching model we characterise growth rate cycle phenomena for these countries by identifying turning points and distinct economic regimes, employing data on the growth rate of the coincident index given by ECRI.\",\"PeriodicalId\":313514,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Oecd Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2016-06-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"8\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Oecd Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1787/JBCMA-2015-5JM22PFHMHLP\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Oecd Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1787/JBCMA-2015-5JM22PFHMHLP","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
A comparison of economic indicator analysis and Markov switching methods concerning the cycle phase dynamics: report
This paper compares the dating of growth rate cycles obtained from a Markov switching approach with the reference chronologies based on Economic Indicator Analysis (EIA) given by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), focusing on a set of developed and emerging economies. The developed countries include US, UK, Germany and Japan, which are compared with an emerging economy, India. Using a univariate Markov regime switching model we characterise growth rate cycle phenomena for these countries by identifying turning points and distinct economic regimes, employing data on the growth rate of the coincident index given by ECRI.