信贷控制是摆脱三难困境的一种方法。布雷顿森林体系的经验

E. Monnet
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引用次数: 8

摘要

宏观经济政策“三难困境”被广泛用作讨论布雷顿森林体系(1944-1971)下资本管制和货币政策自主的基本原理的框架。在不否认其有用性的前提下,我强调了与“三难困境”论点背后的假设不一致的两个事实。首先,内部和外部目标之间的冲突并不常见。其次,使用定量信贷控制使央行能够将利率与国内货币政策立场脱钩。他们将利率分配给外部,而通过直接的数量控制来管理国内信贷扩张。本文证明,这种机制被当代经济学家和央行行长明确认为是逃避国际金融约束的一种方式。在这种环境下,资本管制被用来补充信贷管制。利差既不是衡量资本管制的好指标,也不是衡量央行自主性的好指标。
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Credit Controls as an Escape from the Trilemma. The Bretton Woods Experience
The macroeconomic policy "trilemma" is widely used as a framework to discuss the rationale for capital controls and monetary policy autonomy under the Bretton Woods system (1944-1971). Without denying its usefulness, I highlight two facts at odds with assumptions underlying the "trilemma" argument. First, conflicts between internal and external objectives were uncommon. Second, using quantitative credit controls allowed central banks to disconnect their interest rate from the domestic monetary policy stance. They assigned the interest rate to the external side while managing domestic credit expansion with direct quantitative controls. This paper documents that such mechanism was explicitly considered by contemporary economists and central bankers as a way to escape international financial constraints. In such an environment, capital controls were used to complement credit controls. Interest rate spreads were neither a good measure of capital controls nor of central bank autonomy.
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