利率对尼日利亚货币政策委员会会议/公报的反应

M. Abdulganiyu, Hussaini Dambo
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摘要

近年来,全球各国央行采用了一系列途径来传达其货币政策决定,并向金融市场和公众解释其政策行动的原因。这种沟通反过来又向金融市场发出关于政府活动未来轨迹的信号。因此,本研究调查了尼日利亚2010年1月1日至2020年6月30日期间利率对货币政策委员会沟通的敏感性。进行了一系列的检验,并选择EGARCH作为适当的技术,其中使用虚拟变量来捕获方差方程中的会议天数。货币政策数据来源于央行网站。EGARCH模型的结果表明,中央银行与货币市场之间的沟通具有相当大的信息量,因此有助于降低市场利率的波动性。该研究得出结论,尼日利亚中央银行的沟通对期望的利益方向产生了影响。这一结论的一个政策含义是,对于未来预期的政策导向,央行货币政策委员会会议公报的实质内容将以适当的方式引导市场,这是足够清楚的。这与文献一致,即如果中央银行向市场开放货币政策实施的基础,它将提高控制代理人预期的可能性。因此,该研究建议,会议应该持续下去。
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INTEREST RATE RESPONSES TO MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEETINGS/COMMUNIQUE IN NIGERIA
In recent time the Central Banks cross the globe employ a range of avenues to communicate their monetary policy decisions and explain to financial markets and the general public the reason for their policy actions. This communication, in turn, gives signals to the financial markets regarding the future trajectories of governmental activities. This study therefore investigated the sensitivity of interest rate to MPC communication from 1st January, 2010 to 30th June, 2020 in Nigera. Series of test were carryout and EGARCH was chosen as the appropriate techniques in which dummy variable was used to capture the meeting days in the variance equation. Data of monetary policy were sourced from CBN website. The results of an EGARCH model show that the communications between Central Bank and the money market are considerably informative and therefore assist to reduce market interest rates' volatility. The study has so concluded that the communication from the Central Bank of Nigeria has an impact on the desired direction of interests. One policy implication of this conclusion is that it is clear enough about the desired policy orientation for the future that CBN communique substance of MPC meetings will guide the market in the proper way. This is consistent with the literature that if Central Bank opens the foundations for monetary policy implementation up to the markets, it raises the odds of controlling agents' expectations. Therefore the study recommends that the meeting should be sustained.
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