Is the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis still relevant? Cross-country evidence from 1950 -2017

Abstract. We revisit the Balassa and Samuelson hypothesis based on the relationship between real exchange rate and total factor productivity relative to the United States and investigate with panel data set of 182 countries from 1950 to 2017. Results, suggest that there is an inverse relationship between the two, an increase in productivity results in an increase in real exchange rate and the findings supports the hypothesis. We use a range of tests including Arellano-Bond Dynamic Panel Data (both fixed and random effect) estimator and findings validates the hypothesis. All these additional tests confirm that the relationship between real exchange rate and relative factor producity are related in the long-run also. Keywords. Balassa–Samuelson effect; Exchange rate, Fixed effect model, Random effect model, Trade and globalization. JEL. C15, E31, F31, F41.