新冠疫情期间印尼股市是否存在羊群行为?

Elsa Viona, Fitri Santi, Berto Usman, Dewi Rahmayanti
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摘要

本研究调查了2019冠状病毒病大流行期间印度尼西亚证券交易所的羊群行为迹象。各种研究发现,在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,印尼股市没有出现羊群现象,但我们认为,这些研究在捕捉羊群行为方面的方法有限。我们认为,在大流行期间,羊群在短时间内出现,因此我们必须使用行业股票指数而不是股票市场指数(IHSG)来重新审视羊群行为的存在,并使用滚动回归技术来捕捉在COVID-19大流行期间短窗口期可能存在的羊群可能性。本研究采用Chang等人(2000)提出的模型。分析中采用了收益离散度(CSAD)、绝对市场收益和市场平方收益等变量。我们使用2020年1月2日至2021年4月30日期间的715只股票的收盘价,IDX的9个行业股指,以及IHSG的收盘价。结果表明,全市场股票指数(IHSG)和行业指数在全样本中不存在羊群效应。滚动回归表明,从2020年1月到2021年12月,放牧现象持续了几天。
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Is there Herding Behavior in the Indonesia Stock Market during the COVID-19 Pandemic?
This study investigates the signs of herding behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Various studies found no herding in Indonesian stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic, but we believe those studies have a limited methodology to capture the herding behavior. We believe that herding appears in a short time during the pandemic period, so we have to reexamine the existence of herding behavior using sectoral stock indexes rather than the stock market-wide index (IHSG) and using the rolling regression technique to capture the possibilities of herding that might be existing during short window period in COVID-19 pandemic time. This study uses a model Chang et al. suggested (2000). Variables such as return dispersion (CSAD), absolute market return, and market squared return are employed in the analysis. We use the closing price of 715 stocks, nine sectoral stock indexes in IDX, and the closing price of IHSG from January 2, 2020, until April 30, 2021. The results show that herding cannot be found in the full sample of the market-wide stock index (IHSG) and sectoral indexes. The rolling regression indicates that herding was found for several days from January 2020 to December 2021.
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