政治生存原则在混合政体中的应用:以匈牙利为例

Kristof Filemon
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摘要

布鲁斯·布埃诺·德·梅斯基塔和阿拉斯泰尔·史密斯所著的《独裁者手册》明确列出了被称为政治生存规则的五项关键原则,这些原则尚未在混合政权中得到检验。匈牙利维克多Orbán政权一直表现出混杂的迹象,它提供了检验这五项原则的可能性。为了得出正确的结论,在本定性研究中,Orbán最重要的措施与de Mesquita和Smith的建议进行了对抗,以确定匈牙利总理是否遵守或忽视了政治生存规则,并从政治生存的角度来看这些措施对其政权的影响是积极的还是消极的。结果表明,Orbán的生存策略是基于政治生存的五项原则,因此选择理论的方法应该进一步应用于混合政权。
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The Application of the Principles of Political Survival in Hybrid Regimes: A Case-Study of Hungary
The Dictator’s Handbook by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith has established a clear list of five key principles which are referred as the rules of political survival, which are yet to be tested in hybrid regimes. Viktor Orbán’s regime in Hungary, which has been showing signs of hybridity, offers the possibility to test these five principles. In order to make proper conclusions, the most important measures of Orbán are confronted in this qualitative research with the recommendations of de Mesquita and Smith, in order to determine if the rules of political survival are obeyed or neglected by the Hungarian Prime Minister, and to see if these measures have positive or negative effects on his regime from the perspective of political survival. The results have shown that the survival strategy of Orbán is based on the five principles of political survival, and therefore the approach of the Selectorate theory should further be applied on hybrid regimes.
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