新凯恩斯模型中内部消费习惯的商业周期含义

T. Kano, James M. Nason
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引用次数: 12

摘要

本文研究了内部消费习惯对新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡(NKDSGE)模型的影响。采用贝叶斯蒙特卡罗方法对NKDSGE模型进行拟合评价。仿真实验表明,消费习惯经常提高NKDSGE模型匹配输出和消费增长谱的能力。尽管如此,NKDSGE模型与消费习惯的拟合容易受到名义刚性来源,永久性生产力冲击识别的光谱,用于评估的频率以及货币政策规则的选择的影响。这些漏洞表明NKDSGE模型规范是脆弱的。
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Business Cycle Implications of Internal Consumption Habit for New Keynesian Models
This paper studies the implications of internal consumption habit for new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NKDSGE) models. Bayesian Monte Carlo methods are employed to evaluate NKDSGE model fit. Simulation experiments show that consumption habit often improves the ability of NKDSGE models to match output and consumption growth spectra. Nonetheless, the fit of NKDSGE models with consumption habit is susceptible to the source of the nominal rigidity, to spectra identified by permanent productivity shocks, to the frequencies used for evaluation, and to the choice of monetary policy rule. These vulnerabilities suggest that NKDSGE model specification is fragile.
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