房地产泡沫破裂和大衰退后美国家庭资产负债表行为的变化:来自面板数据的证据

Daniel H. Cooper
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引用次数: 10

摘要

本文使用截至2011年的面板数据来检验金融危机和大衰退后家庭资产负债表行为变化的证据。本文考虑了通过偿还债务来修复资产负债表的证据,以及家庭资产负债表构成和/或储蓄决策的变化,以确定家庭持有或投资风险较高的资产与安全资产的意愿是否发生了变化。数据显示,资产负债表调整幅度相对较小且有限,尤其是那些被认为最有可能受到经济崩溃影响的家庭。确实发生的调整通常会增加家庭的流动资产持有量和/或储蓄,并减少他们的风险资产头寸(股票)。还有一些证据表明,非住房债务的偿还有所增加,新的非住房债务的吸收速度有所放缓。总的来说,这些发现与家庭资产负债表行为发生的重大调整不一致,特别是在这些变化对缓慢的经济复苏产生重大影响的程度上
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Changes in U.S. Household Balance Sheet Behavior after the Housing Bust and Great Recession: Evidence from Panel Data
This paper uses panel data through 2011 to examine evidence of shifts in household balance sheet behavior following the financial crisis and Great Recession. The paper considers evidence of balance sheet repair through debt repayment as well as changes in the composition of households’ balance sheets and/or saving decisions to determine whether households’ desire for holding or investing in riskier versus safer assets has changed. The data show relatively small and limited balance sheet adjustment—especially for those households considered the most likely to have been impacted by the economic collapse. The adjustment that did occur typically raised households’ liquid asset holdings and/or saving and reduced their risky asset positions (stocks). There is also some evidence of increased nonhousing debt repayment and slower takeup of new nonhousing debt. Overall, the findings are inconsistent with major adjustments occurring in households’ balance sheet behavior—especially to the extent where these shifts would have contributed substantially to the sluggish economic recovery
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