Do Firms Exit the Formal Economy after a Minimum Wage Hike?

This paper explores the effects of a large increase in the national minimum wage in Turkey on firms’ exit rates from the formal economy. The analysis exploits a unique, linked employer-employee panel data set of the universe of registered firms in all sectors of the economy. The causal impact of the minimum wage hike is estimated by using pre-policy information on the full distribution of wages in registered firms as a measure of exposure to treatment, and by implementing a difference-in-difference estimation strategy. The minimum wage hike is found to increase firms’ exit rates from the formal economy by 12 percent. This suggests that firm exits attributable to the minimum wage hike could account for up to one-third of the total formal employment destruction that occurred between 2015 and 2016. The minimum wage effect on exit rates is found to be larger among firms with low productivity levels before the policy change, and in sectors where profit margins are low. A range of placebo tests and robustness checks indicate that these findings are not driven by trends in unobservable characteristics correlated with exposure to the minimum wage hike.