Pub Date : 2021-09-25DOI: 10.33774/apsa-2021-td3zm-v2
Sam van Noort
Existing research suggests that too few American voters hold politicians electorally accountable for overt undemocratic behavior to reasonably deter democratic backsliding. Evidence for this proposition comes primarily from hypothetical survey experiments with relatively modest treatments. I test this hypothesis using a natural experiment with a powerful real-world treatment: Donald Trump's incitement of the insurrection of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. The insurrection was unexpected to the general public, did not coincide with other events that could plausibly affect public opinion, and occurred while Gallup was conducting a nationally representative survey using random digit dialing. Comparing Republican Party support among respondents that were interviewed just before, and just after, the insurrection occurred suggests that the insurrection caused a 10.8% decline in support for the Republican Party. Voters predominantly moved to the Democratic Party, rather than Independent. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggests that this electoral penalty is sufficient to decide presidential elections.
{"title":"Do American Voters Really Not Punish Overt Undemocratic Behavior at the Polls? Natural Experimental Evidence from the 2021 Insurrection of the U.S. Capitol","authors":"Sam van Noort","doi":"10.33774/apsa-2021-td3zm-v2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.33774/apsa-2021-td3zm-v2","url":null,"abstract":"Existing research suggests that too few American voters hold politicians electorally accountable for overt undemocratic behavior to reasonably deter democratic backsliding. Evidence for this proposition comes primarily from hypothetical survey experiments with relatively modest treatments. I test this hypothesis using a natural experiment with a powerful real-world treatment: Donald Trump's incitement of the insurrection of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. The insurrection was unexpected to the general public, did not coincide with other events that could plausibly affect public opinion, and occurred while Gallup was conducting a nationally representative survey using random digit dialing. Comparing Republican Party support among respondents that were interviewed just before, and just after, the insurrection occurred suggests that the insurrection caused a 10.8% decline in support for the Republican Party. Voters predominantly moved to the Democratic Party, rather than Independent. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggests that this electoral penalty is sufficient to decide presidential elections.","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122280252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Individual contributions to public goods can be framed in absolute or relative metrics. We examine the effects of asymmetric framing and informational feedback on contributions when group members are heterogeneously endowed. We develop a reference-dependent theory in which the absolute or relative contribution of others serves as a reference point. It predicts that the contribution is highest when high-income members are framed with relative metric and low-income members with absolute metric. We test our theory through an experimental design where the framing is either uniform (absolute or relative for all players) or asymmetric for players with different endowments, and information about a reference contribution level is either available or not. Experimental results confirm most of the basic treatment effects while challenge some of the asymmetric framing effects. Our study contributes to a better understanding of how endowment, framing, and feedback separately and jointly affect individual play in public goods provision.
{"title":"Absolute versus Relative: Asymmetric Framing and Feedback in a Heterogeneous-Endowment Public Goods Game","authors":"X. Wang, Jie Zheng, Lan Zhou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3904519","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3904519","url":null,"abstract":"Individual contributions to public goods can be framed in absolute or relative metrics. We examine the effects of asymmetric framing and informational feedback on contributions when group members are heterogeneously endowed. We develop a reference-dependent theory in which the absolute or relative contribution of others serves as a reference point. It predicts that the contribution is highest when high-income members are framed with relative metric and low-income members with absolute metric. We test our theory through an experimental design where the framing is either uniform (absolute or relative for all players) or asymmetric for players with different endowments, and information about a reference contribution level is either available or not. Experimental results confirm most of the basic treatment effects while challenge some of the asymmetric framing effects. Our study contributes to a better understanding of how endowment, framing, and feedback separately and jointly affect individual play in public goods provision.","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"52 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120922191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Estimates of sensitive questions from list experiments are often much less precise than desired. We address this well-known inefficiency problem by presenting a unified Bayesian framework which combines indirect measures with prior in- formation. Specifying informed priors amounts to a principled combination of information which increases the efficiency of model estimates. This framework generalizes a whole range of different design and modeling approaches for list experiments, such as the inclusion of direct items, auxiliary information, the double list experiment and the combination of list experiments with other indirect questioning techniques. As we demonstrate in several real-world examples from political science, our Bayesian approach not only improves the efficiency and utility but also changes the substantive implications drawn from list experiments. This way, it contributes to a more accurate understanding of sensitive preferences and behaviors of political relevance.
{"title":"Improving Studies of Sensitive Topics Using Prior Evidence: A Unified Bayesian Framework for List Experiments","authors":"Xiao Lu, Richard Traunmüller","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3871089","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3871089","url":null,"abstract":"Estimates of sensitive questions from list experiments are often much less precise than desired. We address this well-known inefficiency problem by presenting a unified Bayesian framework which combines indirect measures with prior in- formation. Specifying informed priors amounts to a principled combination of information which increases the efficiency of model estimates. This framework generalizes a whole range of different design and modeling approaches for list experiments, such as the inclusion of direct items, auxiliary information, the double list experiment and the combination of list experiments with other indirect questioning techniques. As we demonstrate in several real-world examples from political science, our Bayesian approach not only improves the efficiency and utility but also changes the substantive implications drawn from list experiments. This way, it contributes to a more accurate understanding of sensitive preferences and behaviors of political relevance.","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114774299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper examines the impacts of siblings on people's social preference, risk attitude and time preference with a data set from a large-scale lab experiment. Employing the variation of fine rates under One-Child Policy for excess birth in different regions as instrument to address the endogeneity of whether having siblings, we find that sibling's role mainly focuses on shaping people's social preference that subjects with siblings demand less as responders in ultimatum game and behave more cooperatively in sequential prisoner's dilemma. This conclusion survives through several robustness checks. Our further result suggests that more sibling interactions and less parental expectations are two potential mechanisms through which siblings play a role in making people more prosocial. Our findings point to a positive externality along with Two-Child Policy which is widely neglected in both policy evaluation and relevant theory such as quantity-quality theory, and provide implications for the fertility policy such as the recent Three-Child Policy in China and beyond.
{"title":"Are More Children Better Than One? Evidence from a Lab Experiment of Decision Making","authors":"Xun Li, Yuhang Qiu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3785716","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3785716","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper examines the impacts of siblings on people's social preference, risk attitude and time preference with a data set from a large-scale lab experiment. Employing the variation of fine rates under One-Child Policy for excess birth in different regions as instrument to address the endogeneity of whether having siblings, we find that sibling's role mainly focuses on shaping people's social preference that subjects with siblings demand less as responders in ultimatum game and behave more cooperatively in sequential prisoner's dilemma. This conclusion survives through several robustness checks. Our further result suggests that more sibling interactions and less parental expectations are two potential mechanisms through which siblings play a role in making people more prosocial. Our findings point to a positive externality along with Two-Child Policy which is widely neglected in both policy evaluation and relevant theory such as quantity-quality theory, and provide implications for the fertility policy such as the recent Three-Child Policy in China and beyond.","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127786616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The role of a bank advisor is especially important for guiding and counseling financially distressed individuals. Using a randomized controlled survey experiment conducted on a representative sample of French individuals and priming the financial vulnerability of half the respondents, we examine attitudes toward bank advisors. We find that priming deters low-income individuals from showing an extremely negative attitude toward seeking banking advice (positive effect); it also deters them from showing an extremely positive attitude (negative effect). We also find that acute financial distress partially drives the positive effect, and a lack of financial literacy partially drives the negative effect.
{"title":"Financial Vulnerability and Seeking Expert Advice: Evidence from a Survey Experiment","authors":"M. Delis, E. Galariotis, Jerome Monne","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3823841","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3823841","url":null,"abstract":"The role of a bank advisor is especially important for guiding and counseling financially distressed individuals. Using a randomized controlled survey experiment conducted on a representative sample of French individuals and priming the financial vulnerability of half the respondents, we examine attitudes toward bank advisors. We find that priming deters low-income individuals from showing an extremely negative attitude toward seeking banking advice (positive effect); it also deters them from showing an extremely positive attitude (negative effect). We also find that acute financial distress partially drives the positive effect, and a lack of financial literacy partially drives the negative effect.","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"98 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127123465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We conduct a large scale randomized field experiment to study whether providing recipients – 42,454 Chinese households in a rural area – with information on the costs of a real decision they make can help to improve the quality of their choices. The decisions are of high financial impact, as the objects of deliberation – air conditioners – have upfront prices exceeding the average monthly salary of a household. Besides providing nominal cost information, we conduct two additional treatments, where we either present the same information by making the real opportunity costs salient, or by administering the information via a quiz. The former aims at facilitating the comparison of effective costs, while the latter aims at enhancing attention and cognitive involvement. We find that providing cost information substantially affects the choices made, and reduces the decision mistakes, in particular in the two additional treatments.
{"title":"Igniting Deliberation in High Stake Decisions: A Field Study","authors":"A. Hefti, Peiyao Shen, K. Li","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3797548","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3797548","url":null,"abstract":"We conduct a large scale randomized field experiment to study whether providing recipients – 42,454 Chinese households in a rural area – with information on the costs of a real decision they make can help to improve the quality of their choices. The decisions are of high financial impact, as the objects of deliberation – air conditioners – have upfront prices exceeding the average monthly salary of a household. Besides providing nominal cost information, we conduct two additional treatments, where we either present the same information by making the real opportunity costs salient, or by administering the information via a quiz. The former aims at facilitating the comparison of effective costs, while the latter aims at enhancing attention and cognitive involvement. We find that providing cost information substantially affects the choices made, and reduces the decision mistakes, in particular in the two additional treatments.","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"110 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116682058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study experimentally investigated the effects of providing information on public policy’s future outcomes and emphasizing the information with behavioral economics nudges on budgetary decision-making in Japan’s local governments. Public budget officers consider the policy’s efficiency and assess its budget amount; however, the adequate performance of their tasks is prevented by time and information constraints, biases, and institutional pressures. We conducted a field-based survey experiment on staff in financial departments of Japan’s local governments and obtained 484 valid responses. In the experiment, respondents assessed a budget amount for the next year for a hypothetical environmental policy, under one of the following four conditions: (A) control group, (B) future outcome information, (C) future outcome information with a loss-framing nudge, and (D) future outcome information with a social-comparison nudge. The experimental results show that the budget officers assigned to the two nudged-based intervention groups evaluated the future outcomes more highly and referred to them more than the control group, and then their assessed amount increased from the past year’s level and was higher than merely providing the future outcomes information. We conclude that the loss-framing and social-comparison nudges changed the budget officers’ decision-making to be more future-oriented.
{"title":"Nudges for Public Budget Officers: A Field-Based Survey Experiment","authors":"Makoto Kuroki, Shusaku Sasaki","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3772202","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3772202","url":null,"abstract":"This study experimentally investigated the effects of providing information on public policy’s future outcomes and emphasizing the information with behavioral economics nudges on budgetary decision-making in Japan’s local governments. Public budget officers consider the policy’s efficiency and assess its budget amount; however, the adequate performance of their tasks is prevented by time and information constraints, biases, and institutional pressures. We conducted a field-based survey experiment on staff in financial departments of Japan’s local governments and obtained 484 valid responses. In the experiment, respondents assessed a budget amount for the next year for a hypothetical environmental policy, under one of the following four conditions: (A) control group, (B) future outcome information, (C) future outcome information with a loss-framing nudge, and (D) future outcome information with a social-comparison nudge. The experimental results show that the budget officers assigned to the two nudged-based intervention groups evaluated the future outcomes more highly and referred to them more than the control group, and then their assessed amount increased from the past year’s level and was higher than merely providing the future outcomes information. We conclude that the loss-framing and social-comparison nudges changed the budget officers’ decision-making to be more future-oriented.","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127803519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Hollingsworth, Mike Huang, I. Rudik, Nicholas J. Sanders
We leverage a natural experiment, where a large national automotive racing organization switched from leaded to unleaded fuel, to study how ambient lead exposure and nutrition impact learning in elementary school. The average race emitted more than 10 kilograms of lead — a quantity similar to the annual emissions of an airport or a median lead-emitting industrial facility in the United States. Increased levels and duration of exposure to lead negatively affect academic performance, shift the entire academic performance distribution, and negatively impact both younger and older children. We provide quasi-experimental evidence linking measured quantities of lead emissions to decreased test scores, information essential for policies addressing ambient lead and emission sources. Exposure to 10 additional kilograms of lead emissions reduces standardized test scores by 0.07 standard deviations. This corresponds to an average income reduction of $9,000 per treated student in present value terms, an effect of similar magnitude as improving teacher value added by one standard deviation, reducing class size by 10 students, or increasing school spending per pupil by $2,500. The marginal impacts of lead are larger in impoverished, non-white counties, and among students with greater duration of exposure, even after controlling for total exposure. Factors correlated with better nutrition — most notably consumption of calcium-rich foods like milk — help mitigate the link between lead exposure and reduced educational outcomes. These results show that improved child nutrition can help combat the negative effects of lead, addressing several prominent social issues including racial test gaps, human capital formation across income groups, and disparities in regional environmental justice.
{"title":"Lead Exposure Reduces Academic Performance: Intensity, Duration, and Nutrition Matter","authors":"A. Hollingsworth, Mike Huang, I. Rudik, Nicholas J. Sanders","doi":"10.3386/w28250","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28250","url":null,"abstract":"We leverage a natural experiment, where a large national automotive racing organization switched from leaded to unleaded fuel, to study how ambient lead exposure and nutrition impact learning in elementary school. The average race emitted more than 10 kilograms of lead — a quantity similar to the annual emissions of an airport or a median lead-emitting industrial facility in the United States. Increased levels and duration of exposure to lead negatively affect academic performance, shift the entire academic performance distribution, and negatively impact both younger and older children. We provide quasi-experimental evidence linking measured quantities of lead emissions to decreased test scores, information essential for policies addressing ambient lead and emission sources. Exposure to 10 additional kilograms of lead emissions reduces standardized test scores by 0.07 standard deviations. This corresponds to an average income reduction of $9,000 per treated student in present value terms, an effect of similar magnitude as improving teacher value added by one standard deviation, reducing class size by 10 students, or increasing school spending per pupil by $2,500. The marginal impacts of lead are larger in impoverished, non-white counties, and among students with greater duration of exposure, even after controlling for total exposure. Factors correlated with better nutrition — most notably consumption of calcium-rich foods like milk — help mitigate the link between lead exposure and reduced educational outcomes. These results show that improved child nutrition can help combat the negative effects of lead, addressing several prominent social issues including racial test gaps, human capital formation across income groups, and disparities in regional environmental justice.","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128202920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The behavioral revolution within economics has been largely driven by psychological insights, with the sister sciences playing a lesser role. This study leverages insights from sociology to explore the role of neighborhoods on human capital formation at an early age. We do so by estimating the spillover effects from a large-scale early childhood intervention on the educational attainment of over 2,000 disadvantaged children in the United States. We document large spillover effects on both treatment and control children who live near treated children. Interestingly, the spillover effects are localized, decreasing with the spatial distance to treated neighbors. Perhaps our most novel insight is the underlying mechanisms at work: the spillover effect on non-cognitive scores operate through the child's social network while parental investment is an important channel through which cognitive spillover effects operate. Overall, our results reveal the importance of public programs and neighborhoods on human capital formation at an early age, highlighting that human capital accumulation is fundamentally a social activity.
{"title":"The Social Side of Early Human Capital Formation: Using a Field Experiment to Estimate the Causal Impact of Neighborhoods","authors":"J. List, F. Momeni, Y. Zenou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3760076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3760076","url":null,"abstract":"The behavioral revolution within economics has been largely driven by psychological insights, with the sister sciences playing a lesser role. This study leverages insights from sociology to explore the role of neighborhoods on human capital formation at an early age. We do so by estimating the spillover effects from a large-scale early childhood intervention on the educational attainment of over 2,000 disadvantaged children in the United States. We document large spillover effects on both treatment and control children who live near treated children. Interestingly, the spillover effects are localized, decreasing with the spatial distance to treated neighbors. Perhaps our most novel insight is the underlying mechanisms at work: the spillover effect on non-cognitive scores operate through the child's social network while parental investment is an important channel through which cognitive spillover effects operate. Overall, our results reveal the importance of public programs and neighborhoods on human capital formation at an early age, highlighting that human capital accumulation is fundamentally a social activity.","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131778897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study assesses the brain drain potentials in Japan and the factors shaping Japanese skilled workers’ interest in emigrating to other countries. The total number of Japanese citizens who live overseas with permanent residency status reached a record high of 513,750 in 2018. While most existing research attributes Japanese emigration to the pursuit of a better lifestyle, recent qualitative studies point out the emerging sense of country risks as significant drivers. We explore Japan’s brain-drain potentials with a focus on such risk factors. Specifically, based on our original survey, we examine what types of Japanese skilled workers are interested in emigration and how information about Japan’s country risks could affect their attitudes. We find that respondents with overseas experience and those in young age cohorts are particularly motivated to consider emigration. Another notable finding is that those who distrust the government and media are also more likely to think about leaving Japan than those who do not. Furthermore, exposure to information about long-term economic risk encourages them to consider living abroad in the future. These results suggest that the brain drain from Japan is likely to continue, and thus there is a need for long-term policy actions to tackle it.
{"title":"Country Risks and Brain Drain: The Emigration Potential of Japanese Skilled Workers","authors":"Y. Horiuchi, N. Oishi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3727679","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3727679","url":null,"abstract":"This study assesses the brain drain potentials in Japan and the factors shaping Japanese skilled workers’ interest in emigrating to other countries. The total number of Japanese citizens who live overseas with permanent residency status reached a record high of 513,750 in 2018. While most existing research attributes Japanese emigration to the pursuit of a better lifestyle, recent qualitative studies point out the emerging sense of country risks as significant drivers. We explore Japan’s brain-drain potentials with a focus on such risk factors. Specifically, based on our original survey, we examine what types of Japanese skilled workers are interested in emigration and how information about Japan’s country risks could affect their attitudes. We find that respondents with overseas experience and those in young age cohorts are particularly motivated to consider emigration. Another notable finding is that those who distrust the government and media are also more likely to think about leaving Japan than those who do not. Furthermore, exposure to information about long-term economic risk encourages them to consider living abroad in the future. These results suggest that the brain drain from Japan is likely to continue, and thus there is a need for long-term policy actions to tackle it.","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115967673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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