ARIMA模型在印尼5 - 14岁被艾滋病毒感染的儿童身上的应用

Wigid Hariadi, Sulantari Sulantari
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引用次数: 1

摘要

人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)对人类来说是一种危险的疾病,直到现在还没有找到治疗方法。HIV病毒攻击人体免疫系统,使人容易患病。这导致如果有人感染了艾滋病毒,那么这个人就会经历一种危险的情况,甚至会导致死亡。近年来,感染艾滋病毒的5至14岁儿童人数继续增加。因此,撰文人被感动撰写了关于ARIMA模型在预测印度尼西亚到2023年感染艾滋病毒的5 - 14岁儿童人数方面的应用。希望公众或政府能够发现艾滋病毒疾病的潜在危险,特别是在5 - 14岁的儿童中。这样公众和政府才能共同消除艾滋病毒的传播,特别是在儿童中的传播。结果表明,适合用于预测的模型为ARIMA(0,1,2)模型,误差值为0.057429。, 2019 - 2023年印度尼西亚5 - 14岁儿童感染艾滋病毒人数预测值为:570.82、647.12、734.14、823.85、944.83。
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PENERAPAN MODEL ARIMA DALAM PERAMALAN ANAK USIA 5–14 Th YANG TERINFEKSI HIV DI INDONESIA
Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) is dangerous diseases for humans, and until now has not found a cure. Virus HIV is attacks the human immune system so that someone is susceptible to disease. This causes if someone is infected with HIV, then the person can experience an danger condition, it will even effect is death. In recent years, the number of children aged 5 – 14 years old that infected with HIV continues to increase. Therefore the author was moved to write about the application of the ARIMA model in forecasting the number of children aged 5 – 14 years old that infected with HIV in Indonesia by 2023. With the hope that the public or the govermment can find out the potential dangers of HIV disease, especially in children aged 5 – 14 years old. So that the public and govermment can jointly eradicate the spread of the HIV virus, especially in chidren. the result are obtained that the model that is suitable for use in forecasting is the ARIMA(0,1,2) models, with error value obtained is 0.057429. with the forecast value of the number of children aged 5 – 14 years old that infected with HIV in Indonesia from 2019 – 2023 in a row is : 570.82, 647.12, 734.14, 823.85, 944.83.
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