股票市场日收益的拉普拉斯与正态分布

Gustavo Harckbart
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引用次数: 1

摘要

股市日收益分布的尾部似乎比正态分布模型肥得多。本文考察了拉普拉斯分布作为一个更好的股票日收益模型的可能性。对Q-Q图的目视检查似乎证实了拉普拉斯分布更适合数据。拉普拉斯分布在K-S统计检验中也优于正态分布,但被A-D检验拒绝。尽管它似乎是对正态假设的改进,但拉普拉斯分布仍然远远不能完美地适应现实世界的股票市场日回报。
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Laplace versus the Normal Distribution for Daily Stock Market Returns
Daily stock market return distributions seem to have tails that are much fatter than Normal Distribution models. This paper examines the possibility of the Laplace Distribution as a better alternative for modeling daily stock returns. Visual inspection of Q-Q plots seem to confirm the Laplace Distribution better fit to the data. The Laplace Distribution also managed to outperform the Normal Distribution in the K-S statistical tests, while being rejected by A-D tests. Although it seems like an improvement on the Normal hypothesis, the Laplace Distribution remains far from a perfect fit for real world stock market daily returns.
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