知情交易对美国国债市场价格的影响

Onem Ozocak
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摘要

根据对文献的回顾,没有研究检验知情交易的价格影响如何与美国国债市场的流动性水平相关。利用方差分解和制度转换方法,我们发现在流动性更强的市场中,知情交易对价格的影响更大。在运行和非运行的现货市场中,知情交易对价格的影响在2年期和5年期国库券市场中更高。以国库券期货市场为例,10年期国库券期货市场的知情交易对价格的影响更大。我们发现,不知情(知情)个人交易的价格影响随着时间尺度的增加而减小(增加)。结果表明,当市场流动性较强时,在上午8点至下午3点之间,知情交易对价格的影响较大,而在下午3点至下午5点之间,市场流动性较弱,知情交易对价格的影响较小。
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Price impact of informed trades in the U.S. treasury markets
According to a review of the literature, there is no study that examines how the price impact of informed trades is related to liquidity levels in the U.S. Treasury markets. Using variance decomposition and regime-switching methodologies, we find that the price impact of informed trades is higher in more liquid markets. In the case of on-the-run and off-the-run spot markets, the price impact of informed trades is higher in 2-year and 5-year T-notes markets. In the case of T-notes futures markets, the price impact of informed trades is higher in 10-year futures market. We find that the price impact of uninformed (informed) individual trades decreases (increases) as the time scale increases. The results indicate that the price impact of informed trades is greater between 8:00 am and 3:00 pm when the market is more liquid, and smaller between 3:00 pm and 5:00 pm when the market is less liquid.
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