金砖国家和七国集团FDI流入的实证分析

Somesh Sharma, Manmohan Bansal, A. K. Saxena
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摘要

全球各地都注意到外国直接投资流入的变化。七国集团作为发达经济体的代表,在全球FDI流入量中面临着外国直接投资急剧下降的问题,而金砖国家作为发展中经济体的代表,在全球FDI流入量中所占的比重正在上升。外国直接投资是一个重要的经济发展变量,对各经济体的经济增长产生了重大影响。过去流入金砖国家和七国集团经济体的外国直接投资趋势表明,金砖国家经济体的外国直接投资复合年均增长率高于七国集团经济体。最适合ARIMA模型的FDI流入预测值显示,金砖国家FDI流入呈上升趋势,七国集团FDI流入呈稳定下降趋势。FDI流入预测值对比结果显示,金砖国家FDI流入为正,而七国集团FDI流入呈下降趋势。研究结果将有助于外国投资者确定投资机会和他们在选择投资目的地时的未来行动方针。
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FDI Inflow in BRICS and G7: An Empirical Analysis
A change in FDI inflow is noticed across the globe. G-7 economies, as representative of developed economies, are fronting with a sharp decline in foreign direct investment inflows in the entire world's FDI inflow, while BRICS, a representative of developing economies, is getting more of the world as a whole's FDI inflow. FDI is a significant economic development variable that has substantially impacted the economic growth of economies. Past trends of FDI inflow into BRICS and G-7 economies showed that BRICS economies had noticed a higher compounded average annual growth rate in FDI compared to G-7 economies in the preceding periods. The best-suited ARIMA model's anticipated value of FDI inflow shows an increasing trend in BRICS and a steady and dropping trend in the G-7. Comparative results of the predicted values of FDI inflow showed that BRICS would have positive FDI inflow while the G-7 would follow a declining trend. The study's findings shall help foreign investors identify the investment opportunities and their future course of action in selecting an investment destination.
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