Monitoring of Inflation in the New Geopolitical Reality

The article is devoted to the assessment of the inflation rate based on the aggregated inflation index, which characterizes the dynamics of business processes in the main sectors and spheres of the national economy in the conditions of a new geopolitical reality due to the coronavirus pandemic and sanctions wars in connection with Russia’s special military operation in the Donbas and Ukraine (SMO). The object of the study is the monitoring of inflation, acting as an up-todate leading socio-economic barometer formed through the integration of private inflation indicators. During periods of macroeconomic instability, private inflation indices ambiguously reflect the real situation about the ongoing production and inflationary processes in the national economy. As a result, the decisions made are based mainly on unilateral expert analysis, which reduces the effectiveness of the decisions made. The article proposes an approach based on the selection and integration of private inflation indicators and the construction of an aggregated index using statistical methods. This makes it possible to more accurately and quickly calculate the impact of prices and tariffs on the development of key economic complexes, which determines the change in income levels and, accordingly, the quality of life of the population. The proposed methodology opens up significant prospects for monitoring inflation in comparison with the consumer price index used in Russian practice. The result of the work were the conclusions of the authors obtained by analyzing the calculations of the dynamic series of aggregated and partial inflation indices. It is determined that it is advisable to use the aggregated inflation index when indexing pensions, justifying the subsistence minimum and other macro indicators characterizing the level of economic growth and social progress. The aggregated inflation index is proposed to be considered as a target macro indicator of strategic development.