基于二元统计熵指数模型的边坡失稳预测

O. Althuwaynee, B. Pradhan, A. R. Mahmud, Z. Yusoff
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引用次数: 11

摘要

本研究的主要目的是利用基于熵指数的统计模型评估吉隆坡及周边地区潜在边坡破坏的空间预测。基于熵势信息法(IoE),计算了本研究中使用的14个滑坡调节因子(坡度、坡向、曲率、海拔、地表粗糙度、岩性、断层距离、归一化植被指数NDVI、土地覆盖、离排水距离、离道路距离、SPI、土壤类型和降水)的主观权重。利用以前的报告和航空照片解释,辅以广泛的实地调查,制作了研究区域的滑坡清单图,共确定了220个主要陡坡。其中,153个(70%)滑坡点用于构建IoE模型,其余66个(30%)滑坡点用于验证。为了验证,使用曲线下面积(AUC)来量化所采用的IoE模型的预测性能。验证结果表明,考虑到本研究采用的基于二元模型的IoE模型可靠性的优良指标,该模型的预测精度为0.80(80%),成功率为0.81(81%)。
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Prediction of slope failures using bivariate statistical based index of entropy model
The main objective of this research is to evaluate the spatial prediction of potential slope failures in Kuala Lumpur and surrounding areas using an index of entropy based statistical model. Based on potential information of entropy method (IoE), subjective weights were calculated for fourteen landslide conditioning factors used in this study such as, (slope, aspect, curvature, altitude, surface roughness, lithology, distance from faults, NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), land cover, distance from drainage, distance from road, SPI (stream power index), soil type and precipitation). A landslide inventory map of the study area was produced using previous reports and aerial photographs interpretation aided with extensive field survey and total of 220 main scarps were identified. Out of this, 153 (70%) landslide locations were used to build the IoE model, while remaining 66 (30%) landslide locations were used for validation purpose. For validation, the area under the curve (AUC) was used to quantify the predictive performance of the employed IoE model. The validation results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is 0.80 (80%) and the success rate equals to 0.81 (81%) that consider fine indicator of the reliability of bivariate model based IoE model employed in this study.
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