出口竞争力与贸易协定:以色列经验的分析与启示

Eyal Ronen, Y. Benizri
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摘要

过去二十年来,以色列制造业出口业绩一直在增长。这一增长的部分原因是以色列出口专业化模式继续从传统产品转向技术密集型出口。然而,以色列强大的出口竞争力也来自其与贸易伙伴,特别是欧盟的自由贸易协定的激增。本文分析了出口统计数据,以提供验证1995年至2015年间最近的自由贸易协定对以色列所有部门的出口比较优势的积极影响的数据。它采用计量经济学框架来检验稳定性和专业化趋势,以及趋同。此外,作者通过使用Kaplan-Meier存活率模型进行生存分析来补充文献,以确定由于欧盟-以色列联盟协议而从比其他部门更长的竞争优势中受益的特定以色列出口部门。
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Export Competitiveness and Trade Agreements: Analysis and Insights from Israel's Experience
Israeli manufactured export performance has been on a growth path for the past two decades. This growth is partly due to the continuing shift in Israeli export specialization patterns from traditional products towards technology-intensified exports. However, Israel’s strong export competitiveness also derives from proliferating free trade agreements (FTAs) with its trading partners, especially the European Union (EU). This article analyses export statistics to provide data validating the positive impact of recent FTAs on Israel’s export comparative advantages across all sectors between 1995 and 2015. It employs an econometric framework to examine stability and specialization trends, as well as convergence. Furthermore, the authors add to the literature by performing a survival analysis, using the Kaplan-Meier Survival Rate model, to identify particular Israeli export sectors that have benefited from a longer period of competitive advantage than other sectors due to the EU-Israel Association Agreement.
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