This paper empirically examines the US–China trade war that began in mid‐2018, focusing on the impact on a third country, Vietnam. Using regression analysis, we found that while the trade war had a negative impact on US imports from China for all targeted products, there was a partial offset from increased imports from other countries. Notably, US imports from Vietnam experienced a sharp increase, particularly after the third round of US import tariffs on Chinese goods. Additionally, our research reveals that the four rounds of tariff escalation affected US imports from China differently depending on their end‐use and technology intensity.
{"title":"Trade Diversion Effects of the US-China Trade War on Vietnam","authors":"Bo‐Young Choi, T. Nguyen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3908367","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3908367","url":null,"abstract":"This paper empirically examines the US–China trade war that began in mid‐2018, focusing on the impact on a third country, Vietnam. Using regression analysis, we found that while the trade war had a negative impact on US imports from China for all targeted products, there was a partial offset from increased imports from other countries. Notably, US imports from Vietnam experienced a sharp increase, particularly after the third round of US import tariffs on Chinese goods. Additionally, our research reveals that the four rounds of tariff escalation affected US imports from China differently depending on their end‐use and technology intensity.","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"58 29","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120888912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This testimony responds to a Congressional inquiry on the subject of "foreign censorship." It focuses on laws regulating Internet platforms, and because of the ITC's trade focus also prioritizes issues with potential economic impact. The initial filing June 24, 2021 filing addresses (1) competing concepts of "censorship" in platform regulation, (2) the role of informal government pressure or "jawboning" on platforms' global speech rules, (3) recent developments in non-U.S. governments' formal claims of extraterritorial jurisdiction to regulate speech, (4) emerging jurisdictional "hardball" practices, including "hostage" provisions in national laws regulating platforms, and (5) potential economic and competitive impact of recent and pending platform law developments. The post-hearing submission, addressing questions raised in the July 1, 2021 hearing, addresses (1) developments in India, (2) state action in intermediary liability laws, (3) studies attempting to quantify or otherwise empirically assess the economic impact of intermediary liability laws, (4) threats to end-to-end-encryption with both economic and speech-related consequences, with a list of experts and sources on the topic.
{"title":"U.S. International Trade Commission Testimony","authors":"Daphne Keller","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3908060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3908060","url":null,"abstract":"This testimony responds to a Congressional inquiry on the subject of \"foreign censorship.\" It focuses on laws regulating Internet platforms, and because of the ITC's trade focus also prioritizes issues with potential economic impact. The initial filing June 24, 2021 filing addresses (1) competing concepts of \"censorship\" in platform regulation, (2) the role of informal government pressure or \"jawboning\" on platforms' global speech rules, (3) recent developments in non-U.S. governments' formal claims of extraterritorial jurisdiction to regulate speech, (4) emerging jurisdictional \"hardball\" practices, including \"hostage\" provisions in national laws regulating platforms, and (5) potential economic and competitive impact of recent and pending platform law developments. The post-hearing submission, addressing questions raised in the July 1, 2021 hearing, addresses (1) developments in India, (2) state action in intermediary liability laws, (3) studies attempting to quantify or otherwise empirically assess the economic impact of intermediary liability laws, (4) threats to end-to-end-encryption with both economic and speech-related consequences, with a list of experts and sources on the topic.","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133359221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper sets out a personal view of how, in the years immediately following the Brexit referendum, a group of researchers at the Institute of Economic Affairs worked to explain the need for the restoration of Parliamentary sovereignty and the return of free trade following Brexit. The ideas of these researchers, the IEA’s International Trade and Competition Unit (ITCU), became central to the great debate on the future of the United Kingdom, eventually helping to shape the new ‘free trade settlement’ that emerged. The ITCU researchers were inspired by the early campaigns for free trade in Britain, in particular the Victorian campaigns against the Corn Laws and their relationship to the development of democratic culture amid the widening of the franchise. Working in Westminster through the tumultuous years immediately following the referendum, their work included the most-reported paper ever published by a UK think tank, a paper which met fierce opposition and was controversially suppressed by a state regulator. Yet the IEA emerged victorious from these battles, and ITCU’s work, quoted by Prime Minister Boris Johnson in his first major speech on trade, has become central to the new independent trading nation that is emerging. In the 1980s the IEA was uniquely associated with the free market Thatcherite revolution; today, with the United Kingdom having once more taken its place as an independent trading nation and a force for liberalisation, IEA researchers have been at the heart of helping create the new Brexit Britain. This paper begins by reminding readers of the roots of free trade in the thinking of such classical economists as Adam Smith and David Ricardo, and explains how these ideas were associated with the anti-Corn Law movement, which in turn helped to build modern Parliamentary democracy. It then goes on to describe the events surrounding the 2016 Brexit vote, and the political options faced by the United Kingdom, which echo in some ways the choices facing nineteenth-century Britons. The IEA’s role in this is described, and the main part of the paper focuses on the development of ‘Plan A+’, which set out a path towards free trade in the twenty-first century. Despite the political opposition which Plan A+ provoked, and the attentions of the Charity Commission, which (as pointed out in detail later) I believe to have wrongly forced the IEA to withdraw the paper and censor it before it could be re-released, the ITCU researchers ultimately saw much of their analysis and many of their proposals taken up by the new Johnson administration. If the years to come see the government’s trade liberalisation ambitions come to fruition, it will have been in no small measure because of the efforts of the IEA group.
本文阐述了一种个人观点，即在英国脱欧公投后的几年中，经济事务研究所(Institute of Economic Affairs)的一组研究人员如何努力解释英国脱欧后恢复议会主权和自由贸易的必要性。国际能源署国际贸易与竞争部门(ITCU)的这些研究人员的想法成为了关于英国未来的大辩论的核心，最终帮助形成了新的“自由贸易解决方案”。ITCU的研究人员受到英国早期自由贸易运动的启发，特别是维多利亚时期反对《谷物法》的运动，以及它们与扩大选举权过程中民主文化发展的关系。在公投后动荡的几年里，他们在威斯敏斯特工作，其中包括英国智库发表的报道最多的论文，这篇论文遭到了激烈的反对，并有争议地被国家监管机构压制。然而，国际能源署在这些斗争中取得了胜利，而英国首相鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)在其首次关于贸易的重要演讲中引用的ITCU的工作，已成为新兴的独立贸易国的核心。上世纪80年代，IEA与撒切尔式的自由市场革命有着独特的联系;今天，随着英国再次成为一个独立的贸易国家和自由化的力量，国际能源署的研究人员一直在帮助创建新的脱欧英国的核心。本文首先提醒读者自由贸易在亚当·斯密和大卫·李嘉图等古典经济学家思想中的根源，并解释这些思想是如何与反谷物法运动联系在一起的，而反谷物法运动反过来又有助于建立现代议会民主。然后，它继续描述了围绕2016年英国脱欧投票的事件，以及英国面临的政治选择，这些选择在某些方面与19世纪英国人面临的选择相呼应。本文描述了国际能源署在这方面的作用，并重点介绍了“A+计划”的发展，该计划为21世纪的自由贸易指明了道路。尽管A+计划引发了政治上的反对，慈善委员会(Charity Commission)的关注(我认为这错误地迫使国际能源署(IEA)撤回了这篇论文，并在重新发布之前对其进行了审查)，但ITCU的研究人员最终看到了他们的大部分分析和许多建议被约翰逊新政府采纳。如果未来几年中国政府的贸易自由化雄心得以实现，这在很大程度上要归功于IEA集团的努力。
{"title":"The New Trade Route: The Story of the IEA, Brexit and the UK's New Approach to Global Trade","authors":"Radomir Tylecote","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3893599","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3893599","url":null,"abstract":"This paper sets out a personal view of how, in the years immediately following the Brexit referendum, a group of researchers at the Institute of Economic Affairs worked to explain the need for the restoration of Parliamentary sovereignty and the return of free trade following Brexit. The ideas of these researchers, the IEA’s International Trade and Competition Unit (ITCU), became central to the great debate on the future of the United Kingdom, eventually helping to shape the new ‘free trade settlement’ that emerged. The ITCU researchers were inspired by the early campaigns for free trade in Britain, in particular the Victorian campaigns against the Corn Laws and their relationship to the development of democratic culture amid the widening of the franchise. Working in Westminster through the tumultuous years immediately following the referendum, their work included the most-reported paper ever published by a UK think tank, a paper which met fierce opposition and was controversially suppressed by a state regulator. Yet the IEA emerged victorious from these battles, and ITCU’s work, quoted by Prime Minister Boris Johnson in his first major speech on trade, has become central to the new independent trading nation that is emerging. In the 1980s the IEA was uniquely associated with the free market Thatcherite revolution; today, with the United Kingdom having once more taken its place as an independent trading nation and a force for liberalisation, IEA researchers have been at the heart of helping create the new Brexit Britain. This paper begins by reminding readers of the roots of free trade in the thinking of such classical economists as Adam Smith and David Ricardo, and explains how these ideas were associated with the anti-Corn Law movement, which in turn helped to build modern Parliamentary democracy. It then goes on to describe the events surrounding the 2016 Brexit vote, and the political options faced by the United Kingdom, which echo in some ways the choices facing nineteenth-century Britons. The IEA’s role in this is described, and the main part of the paper focuses on the development of ‘Plan A+’, which set out a path towards free trade in the twenty-first century. Despite the political opposition which Plan A+ provoked, and the attentions of the Charity Commission, which (as pointed out in detail later) I believe to have wrongly forced the IEA to withdraw the paper and censor it before it could be re-released, the ITCU researchers ultimately saw much of their analysis and many of their proposals taken up by the new Johnson administration. If the years to come see the government’s trade liberalisation ambitions come to fruition, it will have been in no small measure because of the efforts of the IEA group.","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115398029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Biden administration has moved to refocus the U.S. trade policy on China, acting to promote competition but not thoughtless confrontation. Some actions were strong right out of the gate, but that should not have been that surprising. But it still is. If anything, the recently concluded G-7 meeting in Cornwall and the subsequent U.S.-EU summit in Brussels indicate that the Biden administration intends to take a stronger and a more multilateral and diplomatic approach to confront China. This has been further supported by U.S. allies at the recent NATO meeting in Brussels. The administration is stressing cooperation with allies and competition with China. Biden’s recent diplomacy demonstrates his overriding preoccupation with China. Moving away from Trump’s dysfunctional and disastrous unilateral measures of confrontation with all. This can only help, in stabilizing U.S – China relations and rebuilding the WTO, hopefully.
{"title":"Biden’s Trade Policies - Recalibrated, More Focused, and a Bit Concerning","authors":"Stuart S. Malawer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3872708","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3872708","url":null,"abstract":"The Biden administration has moved to refocus the U.S. trade policy on China, acting to promote competition but not thoughtless confrontation. Some actions were strong right out of the gate, but that should not have been that surprising. But it still is. If anything, the recently concluded G-7 meeting in Cornwall and the subsequent U.S.-EU summit in Brussels indicate that the Biden administration intends to take a stronger and a more multilateral and diplomatic approach to confront China. This has been further supported by U.S. allies at the recent NATO meeting in Brussels. The administration is stressing cooperation with allies and competition with China. Biden’s recent diplomacy demonstrates his overriding preoccupation with China. Moving away from Trump’s dysfunctional and disastrous unilateral measures of confrontation with all. This can only help, in stabilizing U.S – China relations and rebuilding the WTO, hopefully.","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"258 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132559043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
With the aim to boost job creation, the Government of India eyes in making the nation an influential export hub. India's export in services have increased from US$ 145.08 billion in 1999 to US$ 214.8 billion in 2019. The export-to-GDP ratio has risen quite rapidly in India since the 1990s, and the performance of the services sector has been stellar. Having said that, India does face some restrictions in services trade. These regulations on services can take a toll on the manufacturing costs and thus on its export performance. They are the key inputs in the manufacturing sector and support active participation in value chains. Hence, the study focuses on the factors that affect India's trade in services, thereby increasing the trade costs in their sector. The study has used a gravity model approach and estimated using the Poisson regression tool. Further the study recommended some policies for the betterment of services trade in India, corresponding to the observations obtained.
{"title":"International Trade Costs in Services: An Empirical Analysis Through Gravity Framework","authors":"Aratrika Deb","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3884436","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3884436","url":null,"abstract":"With the aim to boost job creation, the Government of India eyes in making the nation an influential export hub. India's export in services have increased from US$ 145.08 billion in 1999 to US$ 214.8 billion in 2019. The export-to-GDP ratio has risen quite rapidly in India since the 1990s, and the performance of the services sector has been stellar. Having said that, India does face some restrictions in services trade. These regulations on services can take a toll on the manufacturing costs and thus on its export performance. They are the key inputs in the manufacturing sector and support active participation in value chains. Hence, the study focuses on the factors that affect India's trade in services, thereby increasing the trade costs in their sector. The study has used a gravity model approach and estimated using the Poisson regression tool. Further the study recommended some policies for the betterment of services trade in India, corresponding to the observations obtained.","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"290 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132636697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this book, Professor Julien Chaisse, a renowned scholar in the field of international economic law and China-expert, focuses on one of the countries which are proactively (re)shaping our understanding of the international order: the People’s Republic of China (PRC or China). This edited book presents, in a comprehensive, accurate and organized manner, the gradual definition of the China’s investment strategy. This book’s scope includes reflections on the international investment regime, taxation, national economic reforms, mediation, competition law and anti-monopoly law, State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), corruption, and the highly-debated China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI) (object of another book edited by Professor Chaisse). Most of the leading legal scholars and professionals who contributed to the book are based in Asia and working on a daily basis on issues relating to China. This diverse group succeeded in offering different, relevant and innovative contributions. The question that the book attempts to answer is whether China is aligned with the dogmas of international investment and trade law. China’s involvement in the global context is in partial contradiction with the national situation, which formed the basis for many commentators’ critical views of China’s accession to the WTO as a risk to the multilateral trading system in the long term. Did this accession lead to free trade or the end of market-based reform of the national economy? Environmental protection or market domination of the environmental industry? Aid for development or aid for resources?
{"title":"Book Review, Julien Chaisse , China's International Investment Strategy: Bilateral, Regional, and Global Law and Policy, Oxford University Press, 2019, 560 pp, ISBN 9780198827450","authors":"P. Farah","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3869740","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3869740","url":null,"abstract":"In this book, Professor Julien Chaisse, a renowned scholar in the field of international economic law and China-expert, focuses on one of the countries which are proactively (re)shaping our understanding of the international order: the People’s Republic of China (PRC or China). This edited book presents, in a comprehensive, accurate and organized manner, the gradual definition of the China’s investment strategy. This book’s scope includes reflections on the international investment regime, taxation, national economic reforms, mediation, competition law and anti-monopoly law, State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), corruption, and the highly-debated China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI) (object of another book edited by Professor Chaisse). Most of the leading legal scholars and professionals who contributed to the book are based in Asia and working on a daily basis on issues relating to China. This diverse group succeeded in offering different, relevant and innovative contributions. The question that the book attempts to answer is whether China is aligned with the dogmas of international investment and trade law. China’s involvement in the global context is in partial contradiction with the national situation, which formed the basis for many commentators’ critical views of China’s accession to the WTO as a risk to the multilateral trading system in the long term. Did this accession lead to free trade or the end of market-based reform of the national economy? Environmental protection or market domination of the environmental industry? Aid for development or aid for resources?","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"208 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132333213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We exploit the natural experiment of Japan’s opening to international trade to examine how comparative advantage can shape a country’s long-run path towards financial development. In the late 19th century, many of Japan’s prefectures had a natural comparative advantage in silk reeling. Producing silk for export required access to finance. At the same time, for technological reasons, borrower-quality in the silk reeling industry was notoriously hard to assess. Silk exporters overcame these frictions by forming local cooperative banks. We show that in the ancient silk prefectures, local cooperative banks continued to dominate local banking markets for over a century while bigger, country-wide banks came to dominate in other regions. By the late 20th century, the silk prefectures are indistinguishable from other regions in terms of their general level of financial development. However, our results suggest that they were effectively less financially integrated with the rest of the country. Hence, comparative advantage in silk favored the emergence of a banking-system dominated by small relationship lenders. But due to the local nature of these lenders, it also caused long-term geographical segmentation in banking markets.
{"title":"Comparative advantage and pathways to financial development: Evidence from Japan’s silk-reeling industry","authors":"Mathias Hoffmann, Toshihiro Okubo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3850774","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3850774","url":null,"abstract":"We exploit the natural experiment of Japan’s opening to international trade to examine how comparative advantage can shape a country’s long-run path towards financial development. In the late 19th century, many of Japan’s prefectures had a natural comparative advantage in silk reeling. Producing silk for export required access to finance. At the same time, for technological reasons, borrower-quality in the silk reeling industry was notoriously hard to assess. Silk exporters overcame these frictions by forming local cooperative banks. We show that in the ancient silk prefectures, local cooperative banks continued to dominate local banking markets for over a century while bigger, country-wide banks came to dominate in other regions. By the late 20th century, the silk prefectures are indistinguishable from other regions in terms of their general level of financial development. However, our results suggest that they were effectively less financially integrated with the rest of the country. Hence, comparative advantage in silk favored the emergence of a banking-system dominated by small relationship lenders. But due to the local nature of these lenders, it also caused long-term geographical segmentation in banking markets.","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121736180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Korean Abstract: 2000년대 이후 중국과 베트남의 급속한 경제성장에 힘입어 우리나라의 對중국ㆍ베트남 무역과 해외직접투자는 빠른 속도로 증가하였다. 이로 인해 우리나라는 무역구조의 상당한 변화를 경험하였다. 對중국ㆍ베트남 무역을 중심으로 한 무역구조의 변화는 우리나라 산업구조의 개편과 함께 국내 산업별 그리고 직종별 노동수요에 상당한 변화를 가져왔을 것으로 예상할 수 있다. 수입경쟁에 더 많이 노출된 산업 혹은 직종일수록 고용감소를 경험할 확률이 높아지는 반면, 수출 증가 기회에 더 많이 노출된 산업 및 직종은 고용이 더 증가했을 가능성이 높다(Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2013; Acemoglu et al. 2016; Koo and Whang 2018; Feenstra, Ma, and Xu 2019). 노동시장이 완전히 효율적이지 않다면, 이러한 고용구조의 변화는 필연적으로 조정비용을 수반한다. 예를 들어 수요가 증가한 산업 및 직업군 종사자는 더 높은 임금 및 고용안정성을 누릴 확률이 높지만, 수요가 감소한 산업 및 직업군에 종사하는 노동자는 더 높은 실직 및 이직 확률과 그로 인한 임금 감소를 경험할 가능성이 높아질 것이다(Autor et al. 2014; Baumgarten, Geishecker, and Gӧrg 2013; Ebenstein et al. 2014; Lee and Lee 2015; 이경희, 김기선, 박문수 2014). 무역구조 변화가 국내 고용구조를 바꾸는 기제를 이해하고 그로 인해 개인의 노동시장 결과가 어떻게 바뀌는지 살펴보는 것은 대외의존도가 높은 우리나라에서 적절한 관련 정책을 수립하는 데 필수적인 연구과제이다. 지난 20여 년간 중국과 베트남을 중심으로 우리나라의 무역구조가 빠르게 재편되었지만, 이러한 변화가 우리나라 노동시장에 미친 영향에 대한 종합적인 연구는 아직 부족한 형편이다. 따라서 본 연구는 중국과 베트남의 부상으로 인한 우리나라 무역구조의 변화가 국내 고용구조의 변화에 미친 영향을 산업 및 직종 수준에서 분석하고, 이러한 고용구조의 변화가 근로자의 소득과 고용안정성에 미친 영향을 살펴봄으로써 포용적 무역을 위한 통상보완정책 및 노동정책에 대한 시사점을 도출하고자 한다. 본 연구의 본론은 모두 3개 장으로 구성되어 있다. 먼저 제2장에서는 2000년대 이후 중국과 베트남의 부상으로 인해 우리나라의 무역 및 해외직접투자 구조가 어떻게 변화했는지 조망하고, 동 기간 국내 산업별ㆍ직종별 고용 현황의 변화를 살펴본다. 제3장에서는 2003~18년 기간에 對중국ㆍ베트남 수입경쟁 및 수출증가 노출에 따라서 산업별 고용과 직종별 신규고용이 어떻게 변화했는지 분석한다. 제4장에서는 노동패널자료를 이용해서 제3장에서 분석한 산업 및 직종별 對중국ㆍ베트남 수입경쟁 및 수출증가 노출도의 차이가 장기간에 걸쳐 노동자 개인의 소득과 고용에 미친 영향을 분석한다. 마지막으로 제5장에서는 주요 결과를 요약하고 정책 시사점을 제시한다. 그동안 기존 연구의 대부분이 중국을 비롯한 저개발 국가로부터의 수입증가로 인한 수입경쟁 상승이 국내 노동시장에 미친 부정적인 영향에 초점을 맞춰 왔다. 이에 비해 본 연구는 ① 저개발 국가에 대한 수입 및 수출 증가 효과를 함께 고려한다는 점 ② 해외직접투자 효과를 명시적으로 통제한 상태에서 수출입 충격의 효과를 추정한다는 점 ③ 산업 수준뿐만 아니라 직종 수준에서의 수출입 충격이 노동시장에 미치는 영향을 함께 분석한다는 점 ④ 노동패널자료를 이용하여 개인의 고정효과를 통제한 상태에서 산업 및 직종별 수출입 충격에 노출된 정도에 따라 근로자의 소득과 고용안정성이 장기간에 걸쳐 어떻게 달라지는지 살펴본다는 점에서 선행연구와 차별성을 갖는다. 주요 연구 결과는 다음과 같다. 먼저 우리나라는 2000년대 이후 對중국ㆍ베트남 수출입의 급격한 증가로 인해 제조업의 산업 및 직종별 고용구조에 상당한 변화를 겪은 것으로 드러났다. 우리나라 제조업 196개 세부산업에 대해 2003~18년 기간에 對중국ㆍ베트남 무역충격이 각 산업 고용변화율에 미친 영향을 도구변수를 사용하여 회귀분석을 실시한 결과, 對중국ㆍ베트남 수입경쟁노출도가 1%포인트 증가한 산업에서는 평균적으로 고용증가율이 0.39%포인트 감소한 반면, 對중국ㆍ베트남 수출증가노출도가 1%포인트 증가한 산업에서는 평균적으로 연간 고용증가율이 0.4%포인트 상승한 것으로 나타났다. 주로 섬유, 의복, 신발 관련 제조업과 통신기기 및 영상기기 등이 對중국ㆍ베트남 수입경쟁노출도가 상대적으로 높고 고용감소가 큰 산업이었으며, 기계 및 장비, 정밀기기, 반도체, 합금철 등은 수출증가노출도가 상대적으로 높으면서 고용증가율이 높은 산업이었다. 對중국ㆍ베트남 수입경쟁 산업의 일자리가 상당히 감소했지만 역으로 수출증가 산업에서 상당수의 일자리가 창출되었다는 사실은 우리나라의 제조업 고용이 여타 선진국과 달리 2000년대 중반부터 오히려 반등할 수 있었던 주요한 요인으로 작용했음을 시사한다. 산업별 고용효과 분석에 이어서 고용보험 DB에서 추출한 제조업 분야 130개 직종에 대한 신규고용 자료를 이용해 2003~18년 기간에 對중국ㆍ베트남 수출입노출도에 따라 직종별 신규고용이 어떻게 변화하였는지 역시 도구변수를 사용해서 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 분석 결과에 따르면 직종에 대한 對중국ㆍ베트남 수입경쟁노출도가 1%포인트 증가할 때 해당 직종의 신규고용 증가율이 4.1%포인트 감소하였고, 對중국ㆍ베트남 수출증가노출도가 1%포인트 증가할 때는 해당 직종의 신규고용 증가율이 0.6%포인트 증가한 것으로 나타났다. 주로 섬유의복 관련직, 재료 및 건설 관련직 등이 對중국ㆍ베트남 수입경쟁노출도가 높고 신규고용감소 추세가 뚜렷하게 나타난 직종이었으며, 공학기술자와 자연생명과학 관련 전문직, 기계화학 산업의 경영 관련 사무직 등은 수출증가노출도가 높고 신규고용도 크게 증가한 직종이었다. 직종별 신규고용 효과 분석에서 또 하나 주목할 만한 결과는 우리나라 제조업 전반에 걸쳐서 중기술 생산직에 대한 신규 수요는 상대적으로 감소한 반면, 저기술 생산직과 경영 관련 사무직에 대한 신규 수요는 상대적으
{"title":"무역구조의 변화가 국내 고용구조에 미친 영향과 정책 시사점 (The Effects of the Increase in Korea's Trade with China and Vietnam on Korean Labor Market and Policy Implications)","authors":"Kyong Hyun Koo, Hyuk-Hwang Kim","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3911589","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3911589","url":null,"abstract":"Korean Abstract: 2000년대 이후 중국과 베트남의 급속한 경제성장에 힘입어 우리나라의 對중국ㆍ베트남 무역과 해외직접투자는 빠른 속도로 증가하였다. 이로 인해 우리나라는 무역구조의 상당한 변화를 경험하였다. 對중국ㆍ베트남 무역을 중심으로 한 무역구조의 변화는 우리나라 산업구조의 개편과 함께 국내 산업별 그리고 직종별 노동수요에 상당한 변화를 가져왔을 것으로 예상할 수 있다. 수입경쟁에 더 많이 노출된 산업 혹은 직종일수록 고용감소를 경험할 확률이 높아지는 반면, 수출 증가 기회에 더 많이 노출된 산업 및 직종은 고용이 더 증가했을 가능성이 높다(Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2013; Acemoglu et al. 2016; Koo and Whang 2018; Feenstra, Ma, and Xu 2019). 노동시장이 완전히 효율적이지 않다면, 이러한 고용구조의 변화는 필연적으로 조정비용을 수반한다. 예를 들어 수요가 증가한 산업 및 직업군 종사자는 더 높은 임금 및 고용안정성을 누릴 확률이 높지만, 수요가 감소한 산업 및 직업군에 종사하는 노동자는 더 높은 실직 및 이직 확률과 그로 인한 임금 감소를 경험할 가능성이 높아질 것이다(Autor et al. 2014; Baumgarten, Geishecker, and Gӧrg 2013; Ebenstein et al. 2014; Lee and Lee 2015; 이경희, 김기선, 박문수 2014). 무역구조 변화가 국내 고용구조를 바꾸는 기제를 이해하고 그로 인해 개인의 노동시장 결과가 어떻게 바뀌는지 살펴보는 것은 대외의존도가 높은 우리나라에서 적절한 관련 정책을 수립하는 데 필수적인 연구과제이다. 지난 20여 년간 중국과 베트남을 중심으로 우리나라의 무역구조가 빠르게 재편되었지만, 이러한 변화가 우리나라 노동시장에 미친 영향에 대한 종합적인 연구는 아직 부족한 형편이다. 따라서 본 연구는 중국과 베트남의 부상으로 인한 우리나라 무역구조의 변화가 국내 고용구조의 변화에 미친 영향을 산업 및 직종 수준에서 분석하고, 이러한 고용구조의 변화가 근로자의 소득과 고용안정성에 미친 영향을 살펴봄으로써 포용적 무역을 위한 통상보완정책 및 노동정책에 대한 시사점을 도출하고자 한다. 본 연구의 본론은 모두 3개 장으로 구성되어 있다. 먼저 제2장에서는 2000년대 이후 중국과 베트남의 부상으로 인해 우리나라의 무역 및 해외직접투자 구조가 어떻게 변화했는지 조망하고, 동 기간 국내 산업별ㆍ직종별 고용 현황의 변화를 살펴본다. 제3장에서는 2003~18년 기간에 對중국ㆍ베트남 수입경쟁 및 수출증가 노출에 따라서 산업별 고용과 직종별 신규고용이 어떻게 변화했는지 분석한다. 제4장에서는 노동패널자료를 이용해서 제3장에서 분석한 산업 및 직종별 對중국ㆍ베트남 수입경쟁 및 수출증가 노출도의 차이가 장기간에 걸쳐 노동자 개인의 소득과 고용에 미친 영향을 분석한다. 마지막으로 제5장에서는 주요 결과를 요약하고 정책 시사점을 제시한다. 그동안 기존 연구의 대부분이 중국을 비롯한 저개발 국가로부터의 수입증가로 인한 수입경쟁 상승이 국내 노동시장에 미친 부정적인 영향에 초점을 맞춰 왔다. 이에 비해 본 연구는 ① 저개발 국가에 대한 수입 및 수출 증가 효과를 함께 고려한다는 점 ② 해외직접투자 효과를 명시적으로 통제한 상태에서 수출입 충격의 효과를 추정한다는 점 ③ 산업 수준뿐만 아니라 직종 수준에서의 수출입 충격이 노동시장에 미치는 영향을 함께 분석한다는 점 ④ 노동패널자료를 이용하여 개인의 고정효과를 통제한 상태에서 산업 및 직종별 수출입 충격에 노출된 정도에 따라 근로자의 소득과 고용안정성이 장기간에 걸쳐 어떻게 달라지는지 살펴본다는 점에서 선행연구와 차별성을 갖는다. 주요 연구 결과는 다음과 같다. 먼저 우리나라는 2000년대 이후 對중국ㆍ베트남 수출입의 급격한 증가로 인해 제조업의 산업 및 직종별 고용구조에 상당한 변화를 겪은 것으로 드러났다. 우리나라 제조업 196개 세부산업에 대해 2003~18년 기간에 對중국ㆍ베트남 무역충격이 각 산업 고용변화율에 미친 영향을 도구변수를 사용하여 회귀분석을 실시한 결과, 對중국ㆍ베트남 수입경쟁노출도가 1%포인트 증가한 산업에서는 평균적으로 고용증가율이 0.39%포인트 감소한 반면, 對중국ㆍ베트남 수출증가노출도가 1%포인트 증가한 산업에서는 평균적으로 연간 고용증가율이 0.4%포인트 상승한 것으로 나타났다. 주로 섬유, 의복, 신발 관련 제조업과 통신기기 및 영상기기 등이 對중국ㆍ베트남 수입경쟁노출도가 상대적으로 높고 고용감소가 큰 산업이었으며, 기계 및 장비, 정밀기기, 반도체, 합금철 등은 수출증가노출도가 상대적으로 높으면서 고용증가율이 높은 산업이었다. 對중국ㆍ베트남 수입경쟁 산업의 일자리가 상당히 감소했지만 역으로 수출증가 산업에서 상당수의 일자리가 창출되었다는 사실은 우리나라의 제조업 고용이 여타 선진국과 달리 2000년대 중반부터 오히려 반등할 수 있었던 주요한 요인으로 작용했음을 시사한다. 산업별 고용효과 분석에 이어서 고용보험 DB에서 추출한 제조업 분야 130개 직종에 대한 신규고용 자료를 이용해 2003~18년 기간에 對중국ㆍ베트남 수출입노출도에 따라 직종별 신규고용이 어떻게 변화하였는지 역시 도구변수를 사용해서 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 분석 결과에 따르면 직종에 대한 對중국ㆍ베트남 수입경쟁노출도가 1%포인트 증가할 때 해당 직종의 신규고용 증가율이 4.1%포인트 감소하였고, 對중국ㆍ베트남 수출증가노출도가 1%포인트 증가할 때는 해당 직종의 신규고용 증가율이 0.6%포인트 증가한 것으로 나타났다. 주로 섬유의복 관련직, 재료 및 건설 관련직 등이 對중국ㆍ베트남 수입경쟁노출도가 높고 신규고용감소 추세가 뚜렷하게 나타난 직종이었으며, 공학기술자와 자연생명과학 관련 전문직, 기계화학 산업의 경영 관련 사무직 등은 수출증가노출도가 높고 신규고용도 크게 증가한 직종이었다. 직종별 신규고용 효과 분석에서 또 하나 주목할 만한 결과는 우리나라 제조업 전반에 걸쳐서 중기술 생산직에 대한 신규 수요는 상대적으로 감소한 반면, 저기술 생산직과 경영 관련 사무직에 대한 신규 수요는 상대적으","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"245 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124695011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Italian Abstract: Questo lavoro riassume e in parte rielabora le analisi e i risultati di alcuni studi, realizzati nel recente passato, sulla misurazione di intensità ed effetti delle barriere agli scambi con l’estero nella storia del nostro Paese. Si identificano in primo luogo i principali punti di svolta della politica commerciale italiana tra il 1861 e la fine del XX secolo. Si calcola poi un indice di trade costs che rappresenta una misura degli impedimenti al commercio bilaterale (Jacks, Meissner e Novy 2011): l’indice quantifica l’impatto della protezione nazionale e internazionale sulla crescita degli scambi con l’estero. Infine, si effettua una valutazione dei gains from trade con un esercizio controfattuale (Arkolakis et al. 2012): il complesso dei benefici del commercio viene misurato dalla differenza, espressa in termini di PIL, tra la situazione di apertura commerciale in essere e un ipotetico regime di autarchia.
Engish Abstract: This paper summarizes and partially revisits the analyses and the results of some studies, carried out in the recent past, on the measurement of the intensity and effects of trade barriers in Italian history. Firstly, the main turning points in Italian trade policy between 1861 and the end of the 20th century are identified, and secondly, a trade cost index that gauges the impediments to bilateral trade is computed (Jacks, Meissner and Novy 2011). The index quantifies the impact of national and international protectionism on the growth of foreign trade. Finally, the gains from trade are estimated via a counterfactual exercise (Arkolakis et al. 2012). The benefits of trade are evaluated over time using GDP as a metric and comparing two scenarios – the real one versus a hypothetical regime of autarchy – characterized by different degrees of openness.
意大利摘要:这项工作总结并在一定程度上重新阐述了最近关于衡量我国历史上对外贸易壁垒的强度和影响的一些研究的分析和结果。首先确定了意大利贸易政策在1861年至20世纪末的主要转折点。贸易成本指数是衡量双边贸易壁垒的指标(Jacks, Meissner和Novy 2011):该指数衡量了国家和国际保护对对外贸易增长的影响。最后，对贸易收益进行了反事实评估(Arkolakis et al. 2012):贸易的总收益是用实际贸易开放情况与假设的自给自足制度之间的gdp差异来衡量的。摘要:这篇论文总结并详细回顾了一些研究的分析和结果，这些研究是在意大利历史上贸易壁垒的强度和影响的衡量过程中得出的。首先，从1861年到20世纪末，意大利贸易政策的主要转折点被确定，其次，一个贸易成本指数计算了对双边贸易的承诺(Jacks, Meissner and Novy 2011)。指数量化了国家和国际保护主义对外国贸易增长的影响。最终，来自贸易的收益通过对抗性exercise得到了估价(Arkolakis et al. 2012)。随着时间的推移，贸易的好处将被视为一种计量方法，并将两种情况进行比较——真正的一种与专制的专制政权——通过不同的开放度赋予它的特性。
{"title":"Breve storia delle barriere agli scambi in Italia (Brief History of Barriers to Exchanges Barriers to Exchanges in Italy)","authors":"Matteo Gomellini","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3852311","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3852311","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Italian Abstract:</b> Questo lavoro riassume e in parte rielabora le analisi e i risultati di alcuni studi, realizzati nel recente passato, sulla misurazione di intensità ed effetti delle barriere agli scambi con l’estero nella storia del nostro Paese. Si identificano in primo luogo i principali punti di svolta della politica commerciale italiana tra il 1861 e la fine del XX secolo. Si calcola poi un indice di trade costs che rappresenta una misura degli impedimenti al commercio bilaterale (Jacks, Meissner e Novy 2011): l’indice quantifica l’impatto della protezione nazionale e internazionale sulla crescita degli scambi con l’estero. Infine, si effettua una valutazione dei gains from trade con un esercizio controfattuale (Arkolakis et al. 2012): il complesso dei benefici del commercio viene misurato dalla differenza, espressa in termini di PIL, tra la situazione di apertura commerciale in essere e un ipotetico regime di autarchia. <br><br><b>Engish Abstract:</b> This paper summarizes and partially revisits the analyses and the results of some studies, carried out in the recent past, on the measurement of the intensity and effects of trade barriers in Italian history. Firstly, the main turning points in Italian trade policy between 1861 and the end of the 20th century are identified, and secondly, a trade cost index that gauges the impediments to bilateral trade is computed (Jacks, Meissner and Novy 2011). The index quantifies the impact of national and international protectionism on the growth of foreign trade. Finally, the gains from trade are estimated via a counterfactual exercise (Arkolakis et al. 2012). The benefits of trade are evaluated over time using GDP as a metric and comparing two scenarios – the real one versus a hypothetical regime of autarchy – characterized by different degrees of openness.","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123690252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the United States ban on Americans’ touring Cuba. It will begin with history of the United States tumultuous relations with Cuba over the past 60 years, then explore the specific language of the ban and the reasons presented for it. I will consider the impact of the new law on both the U.S. and Cuba. The paper will conclude with an argument for lifting the ban and returning to the policy of normalization that preexisted the declaration.
{"title":"The United States Ban on Tourism to Cuba","authors":"Frank J. Vandall","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3857833","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3857833","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the United States ban on Americans’ touring Cuba. It will begin with history of the United States tumultuous relations with Cuba over the past 60 years, then explore the specific language of the ban and the reasons presented for it. I will consider the impact of the new law on both the U.S. and Cuba. The paper will conclude with an argument for lifting the ban and returning to the policy of normalization that preexisted the declaration.","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"71 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126417215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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