投资与产业结构的关系分析

Qi Zhong-ying, W. Ru, Han Lu
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摘要

自从中国实行改革开放政策以来,过度利用投资来刺激经济发展。投资结构的不合理导致了产业结构的失衡。低水平产业产能过剩,供给侧优质产品和服务有效供给不足。为实现持续、高效、高速增长,现阶段中国结构调整的核心任务是推进供给侧改革。在供给侧改革背景下,要围绕落实去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本补短板五大经济任务,进行合理有效的投资。要充分发挥投资在经济增长中的供求效应。从而达到优化产业结构的目的。面对新常态、新形势、新要求,本文基于1991 - 2014年的数据,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和VAR模型分析,对投资与产业结构的关系进行分析,为产业优化方向和供给侧改革的政策选择提供相应的建议。
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Relationship Analysis Between Investment and Industrial Structure
Since China followed the policy of reform and opening, investment has been used to stimulate economic development excessively. And the irrational investment structure has led to the imbalance of industrial structure. As a result, there is overcapacity of low-level industry and effective supply shortage of high-quality products and services in China's supply side. In order to achieve sustained, efficient, high-speed growth, the core task of China's structural adjustment at the present stage is to promote supply-side reform. Under the background of supply-side reform, the reasonable and effective investment should be made around the five economic tasks of the implementation to capacity, to inventory, to leverage, and reducing costs and making up short board. The supply and demand effect of investment should be brought into full play in economic growth. Therefore, the purpose of optimizing the industrial structure can be achieved. In the face of new normal, new situation and new requirements, based on the data of 1991 to 2014, this paper applies co-integration test, Granger causality test and VAR model analysis to analyze the relationship between investment and industrial structure, and provides appropriate recommendations for the direction of industrial optimization and the policy choice of supply-side reform.
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