Heat pump and thermal storage sizing with time-of-use electricity pricing

Heat pump and thermal storage sizing studies require modelling to ensure capital and operational costs are minimised. Modelling should consider added flexibility, eg grid services, sector coupling benefits, eg utilising excess wind production, and access to electricity markets, eg time-of-use tariffs. This paper presents a two-step methodology for sizing heat pump and thermal storage systems with a time-of-use electricity tariff. The first step is a modelling method for decentralised energy systems, with the broader aim of assisting planning-level design, and consists of resource assessment, demand assessment, electrical components, thermal components, storage components, and control strategies. The second step is a parametric analysis of heat pump and thermal storage size combinations. This is then applied to a sizing study for an existing residential district heating network including a time-of-use electricity tariff. The performance metrics:% of heat pump thermal output at low-cost period,% of heat demand met by heat pump, electricity import cost, and capital cost, were plotted and tabulated to compare sizing combinations. Graphs explore the operation of the heat production units and the thermal storage. Future development involving use of model predictive control and grid services, and alternative applications including operational planning and feasibility studies, are then discussed.