基于LOGIT和PROBIT模型的土耳其经济脆弱性因素分析(1990.01-2018:05)

Recep Tari, Figen Büyükakın, Seda Aydin
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摘要

摘要20世纪末开始的全球化运动影响了经济的许多领域。全球化的结果是,尽管政治边界仍然存在,但各国在经济领域建立了无国界的关系。另一方面,随着全球化进程的推进,世界经济中的金融危机日益频繁。特别是,2008年全球危机达到严重程度的事实使得有必要采取措施稳定市场,并评估可能动摇市场并使市场变得脆弱的因素。金融脆弱性是一个经常与金融不稳定和金融危机概念同时使用的概念。金融脆弱性是由海曼·明斯基提出的一个假设,它不同于这两个概念,并且受到不稳定和危机的互动影响。在本研究中,与参考明斯基金融脆弱性假设的其他研究不同,我们旨在确定使土耳其金融市场脆弱的因素。使用1990:01-2018:05期间的数据进行Logit和probit模型研究。参考研究结果,银行贷款量与M2发生准备金之比的增加增加了未来发生危机的可能性。此外,研究最后发现,综合领先指标指数和BIST 100指数中M2的下降会增强危机发生的可能性。关键词。金融脆弱性,明斯基假设,Logit模型,Probit模型。冻胶。G00, c12, b23。
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Analysis of factors make Turkish economy fragile by LOGIT and PROBIT models (1990.01-2018:05)
Abstract. The globalization movements that started towards the end of the 20th century influenced many areas of the economy. As a result of the globalization, despite the persistence of the political borders, countries have established borderless relationships in the economic arena. On the other hand, along with globalization, financial crises have become more frequent in the world economy. In particular, the fact that the 2008 Global Crisis reached serious dimensions made it necessary to take measures to stabilize the markets and to evaluate the factors that would shake the market and make the market fragile. Financial fragility is a concept that is often concurrently used with the concepts of financial instability and financial crisis. Financial fragility is a hypothesis which was developed by Hyman Minsky and is different from both concepts and also is interactively affected by instability and crises. In this study, unlike other studies with reference to Minsky's financial fragility hypothesis, we aimed to identify the factors that make fragile the financial markets in Turkey. Logit and probit models were studied with the data of 1990:01-2018:05 period. With reference to the study results, the increase in ratios of the volume of bank loans and M2 occur reserves increases the possibility of future crises. Besides, it is found at the end of the study that a decrease in the composite leading indicators index and in M2 in the BIST 100 index will strengthen the probability of a crisis. Keywords. Financial fragility, Minsky hypothesis, Logit model, Probit model. JEL. G00, C12, B23.
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