卖方分析师嘴上说“买”,嘴上却说“卖”吗?

Yushui Shi
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引用次数: 3

摘要

我研究了卖方股票分析师如何战略性地向公众和与他们有联系的买方共同基金经理披露不同的信息。我专门测试了一种可能性,即分析师在公开推荐时告诉公众“买入”,但他们对与自己有关系的基金经理悄悄说“卖出”。我根据经理人卖出分析师建议买入的股票的比例来衡量这种“说买/耳语卖”行为的可能性。利用共同基金经理在中国“明星分析师”竞赛中对卖方分析师的投票,作为经理对分析师评估的代理,我发现经理更有可能投票给那些与这些经理表现出更多“说买/耳语卖”行为的分析师。这一结果表明,与分析师的公开推荐相比,管理者在与分析师的私下沟通中获得了更精确的信息,并通过在“明星分析师”竞争中投票支持分析师来奖励这种青睐。分析师信息披露的不同导致了某种形式的信息不对称,这给不知情的投资者带来了巨大的成本;在分析师的积极推荐中,投票支持分析师的基金经理购买的股票表现优于这些基金经理在推荐日期前后卖出的股票。
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Do Sell-Side Analysts Say “Buy” While Whispering “Sell”?
I examine how sell-side equity analysts strategically disclose different information to the public and buy-side mutual fund managers to whom they are connected. I specifically test the possibility that analysts’ public recommendations tell the public to “buy” but they are whispering “sell” to their connected fund managers. I measure the likelihood of such “say buy/whisper sell” behavior based upon the percentage of managers’ selling stocks that analysts recommend buying. Using mutual fund managers’ votes for sell-side analysts in a Chinese “star analyst” competition as a proxy for managers’ evaluations of analysts, I find that managers are more likely to vote for the analysts who exhibit more say buy/whisper sell behavior with these managers. This result suggests that managers receive more-precise information in private communications with an analyst than in the analyst’s public recommendations and reward the favor by voting for the analyst in the “star analyst” competition. This different information disclosure by analysts results in a form of information asymmetry, which incurs a significant cost on uninformed investors; among analysts’ positive recommendations, the stocks bought by the managers who vote for the analysts outperform the stocks sold by these managers around the recommendation dates.
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