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Quality and Pricing Decisions for Reward-based Crowdfunding: Effects of Moral Hazard 基于奖励的众筹的质量和定价决策:道德风险的影响
Pub Date : 2021-09-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3925914
Feiyang Shen, Lijun Ma, T. Choi, Weili Xue
Private cost information and entrepreneurial moral hazard are serious problems that result from the significant information asymmetry associated with creators and their backers in reward-based crowdfunding. We establish a dynamic game-theoretic model to investigate the effect of moral hazard on the quality and price decisions of a creator (male) when his cost efficiency is unobservable. Backers (female) in the crowdfunding stage directly observe neither the cost efficiency nor the product quality of the creator. They then make pledge decisions based on expectations about the quality after observing the campaign parameter signals (i.e., the reward price and funding goal) and whether the regulation mechanism is implemented with a strong hand (tighter regulations mean that the creators have less moral hazard). We find that compared with the information symmetry case, when the efficiency of creators is not known to backers, an efficient creator always provides a higher level of product quality when moral hazard is present but not always when moral hazard is absent. In addition, we investigate the effect of moral hazard on the creator and consumer surplus when the creator's cost efficiency is unobservable. Interestingly, we show that moral hazard may benefit both the creator and consumers. This explains the puzzling measures of some reward crowdfunding platforms such as Kickstarter and Indiegogo, which take no active role in managing or monitoring the entrepreneurial projects. Finally, we find that reasonably the efficient creator can better signal his efficiency by using two signaling devices, i.e., the reward price and funding goal; in this case, interestingly, the existence of moral hazard may still benefit both the creators and consumers. This confirms the robustness of our main results.
私人成本信息和企业家道德风险是由于奖励型众筹中创造者及其支持者之间存在着严重的信息不对称而导致的严重问题。本文建立了一个动态博弈论模型,研究了当成本效率不可观察时,道德风险对创造者(男性)的质量和价格决策的影响。众筹阶段的支持者(女性)既不直接观察创作者的成本效益,也不直接观察创作者的产品质量。然后,他们在观察活动参数信号(即奖励价格和融资目标)以及监管机制是否得到强有力的执行(更严格的监管意味着创造者的道德风险更小)后,根据对质量的期望做出承诺决定。我们发现,与信息对称情况相比,当投资者不知道创造者的效率时,当存在道德风险时,一个高效的创造者总是提供更高水平的产品质量,而当没有道德风险时,则并非总是如此。此外,我们还考察了当创造者的成本效率不可观察时,道德风险对创造者和消费者剩余的影响。有趣的是,我们表明道德风险可能对创造者和消费者都有利。这就解释了一些奖励众筹平台(如Kickstarter和Indiegogo)令人费解的措施,它们在管理或监督创业项目方面没有发挥积极作用。最后,我们发现高效创造者可以合理地通过奖励价格和融资目标两种信号装置来更好地表达其效率;在这种情况下,有趣的是,道德风险的存在可能仍然对创造者和消费者都有利。这证实了我们主要结果的稳健性。
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引用次数: 2
Punish Underperformance with Resting Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost 存在切换成本的静态最优动态契约对表现不佳的惩罚
Pub Date : 2021-09-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3924930
P. Cao, Peng Sun, Feng Tian
This paper studies a dynamic principal-agent setting in which the principal needs to dynamically schedule an agent to work or rest. When the agent is motivated to work, the arrival rate of a Poisson process increases, which increases the principal's payoff. Resting, on the other hand, serves as a threat to the agent by delaying future payments. A key feature of our setting is a switching cost whenever the agent stops resting and starts working. We formulate the problem as an optimal control model with switching, and fully characterize the optimal control policies under different parameter settings. Our analysis shows that when the switching cost is not too high, the optimal contract demonstrates a generalized control-band structure, and may involve randomly switching the agent to rest. The length of each resting episode, on the other hand, is fixed. Overall, the optimal contract is easy to describe, compute, and implement.
本文研究了一种动态委托代理设置,其中委托人需要动态地安排代理的工作或休息。当代理人被激励工作时,泊松过程的到达率增加,这增加了委托人的收益。另一方面,休息是对代理人的一种威胁,因为它延迟了未来的付款。我们设置的一个关键特征是,当代理停止休息并开始工作时,切换成本。我们将该问题表述为带切换的最优控制模型,并充分表征了不同参数设置下的最优控制策略。我们的分析表明,当切换成本不太高时,最优契约表现为广义控制带结构,并且可能涉及随机切换代理到休息状态。另一方面,每个静息集的长度是固定的。总的来说,最优契约很容易描述、计算和实现。
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引用次数: 1
A reconsideration of the Rothschild-Stiglitz insurance market model by information theory 信息论对罗斯柴尔德-斯蒂格利茨保险市场模型的再思考
Pub Date : 2021-09-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3923946
Robert Mamada
This paper reconsiders the Rothschild-Stiglitz insurance market model by information theory. The seminal work by Rothschild and Stiglitz (1978) has become one of the standard models of insurance markets. However, there are a couple of issues that economists find it difficult to understand with this model. First, this model shows that all the equilibria are separating equilibria, and such separating equilibria may not exist under certain conditions. Second, this model is based on the indifference curves of the insurance consumers' utility functions which could be difficult to obtain empirically. This paper attempts to overcome these difficulties by using what Spence called "indices" of observable and unalterable attributes of insurance consumers. This paper approaches the problem as a sequential Bayesian game (a dynamic game with incomplete information), and uses information theory to estimate the costs and benefits of the information contained in indices. Consequently, this paper shows that if the costs and benefits of information fall within certain ranges, using indices is sufficient to avoid the non-existence of equilibria. Furthermore, obtaining indices is easier than specifying the utility function for each insurance consumer.
本文从信息论的角度重新考虑了罗斯柴尔德-斯蒂格利茨保险市场模型。罗斯柴尔德和斯蒂格利茨(1978)的开创性工作已成为保险市场的标准模型之一。然而,经济学家发现用这个模型很难理解一些问题。首先,该模型表明所有的均衡都是分离均衡,这种分离均衡在某些条件下可能不存在。其次,该模型基于保险消费者效用函数的无差异曲线,这在经验上很难得到。本文试图通过使用Spence所谓的保险消费者的可观察和不可改变属性的“指数”来克服这些困难。本文将这一问题视为一个序列贝叶斯博弈(一种信息不完全的动态博弈),并利用信息论来估计指标中所含信息的成本和收益。因此,本文表明,如果信息的成本和收益落在一定范围内,使用指标就足以避免不存在均衡。此外,获得指数比指定每个保险消费者的效用函数更容易。
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引用次数: 0
Learning from Law Enforcement 向执法部门学习
Pub Date : 2021-09-07 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvab037
L. Dušek, C. Traxler
This paper studies how punishment affects future compliance behavior and isolates deterrence effects mediated by learning. Using administrative data from speed cameras that capture the full driving histories of more than a million cars over several years, we evaluate responses to punishment at the extensive (receiving a speeding ticket) and intensive margin (tickets with higher fines). Two complementary empirical strategies a regression discontinuity design and an event study coherently document strong responses to receiving a ticket: the speeding rate drops by a third and reoffense rates fall by 70% Higher fines produce a small but imprecisely estimated additional effect. All responses occur immediately and are persistent over time, with no backsliding towards speeding even two years after receiving a ticket. Our evidence rejects unlearning and temporary salience effects. Instead, it supports a learning model in which agents update their priors on the expected punishment in a coarse manner.
本文研究了惩罚对未来服从行为的影响,并隔离了学习介导的威慑效应。我们使用从超速摄像头获取的管理数据,这些数据记录了几年来超过一百万辆汽车的全部驾驶历史,我们评估了对广泛(收到超速罚单)和密集(罚款更高的罚单)惩罚的反应。两种互补的经验策略——回归不连续设计和事件研究——连贯地记录了收到罚单后的强烈反应:超速率下降了三分之一,再犯率下降了70%。更高的罚款产生了一个小但不精确估计的额外效应。所有的反应都是立即发生的,并且随着时间的推移而持续,即使在收到罚单两年后也不会再次超速。我们的证据否定了遗忘和暂时的显著效应。相反,它支持一个学习模型,在这个模型中,智能体以一种粗糙的方式更新它们对预期惩罚的先验。
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引用次数: 17
Pulp Friction: The Value of Quantity Contracts in Decentralized Markets 纸浆摩擦:分散市场中数量契约的价值
Pub Date : 2021-09-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3919592
J. Tolvanen, Olivier Darmouni, Simon Essig Aberg
Firms in decentralized markets often trade using quantity contracts, agreements that specify quantity in advance of trade. We show that firms use quantity contracts to reduce the costs of trading frictions. Specifically, quantity contracts are valuable for two reasons. First, they increase trade between high surplus trading partners because they lock in trade prior to the point of sale. Second, they provide quantity insurance -- we show that buyers and sellers are endogenously risk averse with respect to quantity. However, quantity contracts are costly due to their inflexibility to market conditions. Using proprietary invoice data from a large seller, we estimate a model of quantity contracts in the pulp and paper industry. We find that the median value of a quantity contract is 10% of net price. The median value would be 25% lower without quantity insurance and 84% higher without the cost of inflexibility. As trading frictions diminish, the seller uses fewer quantity contracts and profits increase.
分散市场中的公司通常使用数量合同进行交易,即在交易前明确数量的协议。我们发现企业使用数量合同来降低贸易摩擦的成本。具体来说,数量合同的价值有两个原因。首先,它们增加了高顺差贸易伙伴之间的贸易,因为它们在销售点之前锁定了贸易。其次,它们提供数量保险——我们表明,买家和卖家在数量方面都是内生的风险厌恶者。然而,数量合同的成本很高,因为它们对市场条件缺乏灵活性。使用来自大型卖家的专有发票数据,我们估计了纸浆和造纸行业数量合同的模型。我们发现数量合同的中位数是净价的10%。如果没有数量保险,中位数会低25%,如果没有缺乏灵活性的成本,中位数会高84%。随着贸易摩擦的减少,卖方使用的数量合同减少,利润增加。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring the Welfare Cost of Asymmetric Information in Consumer Credit Markets 消费信贷市场中信息不对称的福利成本测算
Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3912968
A. DeFusco, Huan Tang, Constantine Yannelis
Information asymmetries are known in theory to lead to inefficiently low credit provision, yet empirical estimates of the resulting welfare losses are scarce. This paper leverages a randomized experiment conducted by a large fintech lender to estimate welfare losses arising from asymmetric information in the market for online consumer credit. Building on methods from the insurance literature, we show how exogenous variation in interest rates can be used to estimate borrower demand and lender cost curves and recover implied welfare losses. While asymmetric information generates large equilibrium price distortions, we find only small overall welfare losses, particularly for high-credit-score borrowers.
理论上,人们知道信息不对称会导致信贷供应效率低下,但对由此造成的福利损失的实证估计却很少。本文利用一家大型金融科技贷款机构进行的随机实验来估计在线消费信贷市场中信息不对称造成的福利损失。基于保险文献的方法,我们展示了如何使用利率的外生变化来估计借款人需求和贷款人成本曲线,并收回隐含的福利损失。虽然信息不对称造成了严重的均衡价格扭曲,但我们发现,总体福利损失很小,尤其是对信用评分高的借款人而言。
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引用次数: 18
How Creepy Concepts Undermine Effective Insider Trading Reform 令人毛骨悚然的概念如何破坏有效的内幕交易改革
Pub Date : 2021-08-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3912868
K. Douglas
Lawmakers are building momentum towards codifying our insider trading laws to clarify which kind of trading is illegal. In May 2021, the US House of Representatives passed the Insider Trading Prohibition Act for the second time in two years. In January 2020, a Securities and Exchange Commission sponsored task force on insider trading released a report containing proposed legislation. Both the House Bill and the task force proposal would prohibit trading while in possession of “wrongfully obtained” information and prohibit trades that involve a “wrongful use” of information. This article explains why the concept of “wrongful” trading is too ambiguous to improve insider trading law and explores the requirements of effective legislative reform. For decades, scholars have described insider trading doctrine as mystifying and called for reform. Many explain the confusion by pointing to the stark difference in how enforcement officials and federal courts apply insider trading law. Others argue that the confusion is caused by policymakers failing to choose between fostering efficient markets and fostering fair or equitable markets. This article argues that the conflict between courts and enforcement officials is a symptom of two deeper conceptual problems—one at the doctrinal level and one at the policy level. The doctrinal confusion is more precisely caused by the attempt to simultaneously invoke two conflicting concepts of “fairness.” Fairness meaning consensual transactions, versus fairness meaning transactions in which all parties enjoy equal access to all material information and other economic values. Attempting to simultaneously apply these mutually exclusive notions of fairness has caused a slow and inconsistent conceptual creep, resulting in an incoherent doctrine. The policy confusion is caused by officials relying on economic models that use misidentified theories of “economic efficiency.” Officials describe the policy goal of our insider trading regime as encouraging capital formation in US securities markets and economic growth in general. These goals imply an exclusive commitment to promoting “allocational efficiency”—or maximizing wealth. However, scholars usually rely on the concept of “market efficiency” when evaluating the law and practice of insider trading. The definition of market efficiency relies on assumptions that embody an unacknowledged focus on economic distribution—equalizing wealth. This includes the assumptions that all investors (1) trade at the same price (the correct price) and (2) have equal access to all available information. Conflating these forms of efficiency causes officials to unintentionally oscillate between promoting opaque distribution goals and promoting economic growth. This article recommends clarifying insider trading law by prioritizing one of the two conflicting fairness doctrines and a compatible policy goal. Clarity requires specifying whether consent is a defense against insider trading liability. En
立法者们正在努力编纂我们的内幕交易法,以明确哪种交易是非法的。2021年5月,美国众议院在两年内第二次通过了《内幕交易禁止法案》。2020年1月,美国证券交易委员会(sec)发起的内幕交易特别工作组发布了一份包含拟议立法的报告。众议院法案和特别工作组的提案都将禁止在拥有“错误获取”信息的情况下进行交易,并禁止涉及“错误使用”信息的交易。本文解释了内幕交易法中“不法”交易概念过于模糊的原因,并探讨了有效立法改革的要求。几十年来,学者们一直认为内幕交易理论令人费解,并呼吁进行改革。许多人对这种困惑的解释是,执法官员和联邦法院在适用内幕交易法的方式上存在明显差异。另一些人则认为,造成这种混乱的原因是政策制定者未能在培育有效市场和培育公平或公平的市场之间做出选择。本文认为,法院和执法官员之间的冲突是两个更深层次的概念问题的症状——一个在理论层面,一个在政策层面。更确切地说,这种教义上的混乱是由于试图同时援引两个相互冲突的“公平”概念造成的。公平指的是双方同意的交易,而公平指的是各方平等地获得所有重要信息和其他经济价值的交易。试图同时应用这些相互排斥的公平概念导致了缓慢而不一致的概念蔓延,导致了不连贯的学说。造成政策混乱的原因是官员们依赖的经济模型使用了错误的“经济效率”理论。官员们将美国内幕交易制度的政策目标描述为鼓励美国证券市场的资本形成和总体经济增长。这些目标意味着对提高“分配效率”或财富最大化的唯一承诺。然而,学者们在评价内幕交易的法律和实践时,往往依赖于“市场效率”的概念。市场效率的定义依赖于一些假设,这些假设体现了一种未被承认的对经济分配——财富均衡的关注。这包括假设所有投资者(1)以相同的价格(正确的价格)交易,(2)有平等的机会获得所有可用的信息。将这些形式的效率混为一谈,导致官员们在促进不透明的分配目标和促进经济增长之间无意识地摇摆不定。本文建议通过优先考虑两种相互冲突的公平原则之一和相容的政策目标来澄清内幕交易法。要明确这一点,就需要明确同意是否可以作为对内幕交易责任的辩护。只执行一种公平原则,让每个人都可以选择私下遵守这两种原则,同时通过法律成功地应用其中一种原则。
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引用次数: 0
Options Trading Activity and the Efficiency of Corporate Investment 期权交易活动与企业投资效率
Pub Date : 2021-08-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3788992
Seraina C. Anagnostopoulou, L. Trigeorgis, A. Tsekrekos
We examine the association between active options market trading and the (in)efficiency of corporate investment in terms of deviation from optimal investment levels. Past research considers the volume of options trading as contributing to firms’ informational efficiency. Investment efficiency is partly driven by information asymmetries between firm managers and capital providers, aggravating moral hazard concerns. We test whether the enhancement in firms’ information environment associated with higher volume of options trading activity is positively related to optimizing investment at the firm level. Our results indicate that the volume of options trading by firms is positively and significantly associated with firm-level investment efficiency. This relation is associated with the enhancement in the firms’ information environment stemming from active options trading and with improved managerial learning from informed traders’ market participation. Overall, our findings suggest that managerial skills and learning associated with active trading in options markets benefit firms’ investment decisions through enhancing the optimal allocation of firm resources and investment efficiency.
我们从偏离最优投资水平的角度考察了积极期权市场交易与企业投资效率之间的关系。过去的研究认为期权交易量对公司的信息效率有贡献。投资效率部分是由企业管理者和资本提供者之间的信息不对称驱动的,这加剧了对道德风险的担忧。我们检验了企业信息环境的增强与更高的期权交易活动量是否与企业层面的投资优化呈正相关。研究结果表明,企业期权交易量与企业投资效率之间存在显著正相关关系。这一关系与积极期权交易所带来的公司信息环境的改善以及知情交易者参与市场所带来的管理学习的改善有关。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,与期权市场积极交易相关的管理技能和学习,通过提高企业资源的最优配置和投资效率,有利于企业的投资决策。
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引用次数: 1
To Insure or Not to Insure? Promoting Trust and Cooperation with Insurance Advice in Markets 投保还是不投保?促进保险咨询在市场上的信任与合作
Pub Date : 2021-07-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3892011
Ben Grodeck, Franziska Tausch, Erte Xiao, Chengsi Wang
We design a novel insurance advice mechanism aimed at promoting trust and cooperation in markets with asymmetric information. In a buyer-seller game, sellers are given the option to advise buyers on whether to purchase third-party insurance against the potential losses from the opportunistic behavior of strategic sellers. The theoretical model suggests that both cooperative and strategic sellers will advise buyers not to purchase the insurance. Once this advice has been given, strategic sellers are less likely to pursue self-interest due to the associated psychological costs. We conduct a controlled laboratory experiment and show that the insurance advice mechanism significantly increases market efficiency, with sellers being more likely to cooperate with buyers and buyers being more likely to purchase from the seller. Furthermore, we find that the insurance advice mechanism is more effective when sellers can observe buyers’ insurance purchase decisions.
本文设计了一种新的保险咨询机制,旨在促进信息不对称市场中的信任与合作。在买方-卖方博弈中,卖方可以选择建议买方是否购买第三方保险,以防范战略卖方机会主义行为带来的潜在损失。理论模型表明,合作型和战略型卖方都会建议买方不购买保险。一旦给出了这种建议,由于相关的心理成本,战略卖家就不太可能追求自身利益。通过实验室对照实验,我们发现保险咨询机制显著提高了市场效率,卖家更愿意与买家合作,买家更愿意从卖家那里购买。此外,我们发现当卖方能够观察到买方的保险购买决策时,保险建议机制更为有效。
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引用次数: 0
The (Limited) Power of Blockchain Networks for Information Provision 区块链网络在信息提供方面的(有限)力量
Pub Date : 2021-07-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3475383
Benedikt Franke, Qi Gao Fritz, André Stenzel
We investigate the potential and limits of privacy-preserving corporate blockchain applications for information provision. We provide a theoretical model in which heterogeneous firms choose between adopting a blockchain application or relying on traditional third-party intermediaries to inform the capital market. The blockchain’s ability to generate information depends on each firm’s data profile and all firms’ endogenous adoption decisions. We show that blockchain technology can improve the information environment and outperform traditional institutions with firms’ adoption decisions serving as a credible value signal and the application uncovering firm values by analyzing all participating firms’ data. However, we also characterize an adverse mixed-adoption equilibrium in which neither of the two channels realizes its full potential and information provision declines not only for individual firms, but also in aggregate. The equilibrium is a warning sign that has broad implications for policymakers’ regulatory effort and investors’ assessment of corporate blockchain applications. This paper was accepted by Suraj Srinivasan, accounting. Funding: B. Franke and Q. Gao Fritz gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) Project-ID 403041268–TRR 266 Accounting for Transparency. A. Stenzel gratefully acknowledges financial support from the DFG through CRC TR 224 (Project C03) during prior employment at the University of Mannheim. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4718 .
我们调查的潜力和限制的隐私保护公司b区块链应用程序的信息提供。我们提供了一个理论模型,在这个模型中,异质公司在采用区块链应用程序或依赖传统的第三方中介机构来通知资本市场之间做出选择。区块链产生信息的能力取决于每个公司的数据概况和所有公司的内生采用决策。我们表明,区块链技术可以改善信息环境,并优于传统制度,企业的采用决策作为可信的价值信号,应用程序通过分析所有参与企业的数据来揭示企业的价值。然而,我们也描述了一种不利的混合采用均衡,在这种均衡中,两种渠道都没有充分发挥其潜力,不仅单个公司的信息供应减少,而且总体上也会减少。这种均衡是一个警告信号,对政策制定者的监管努力和投资者对企业区块链应用的评估具有广泛的影响。这篇论文被会计Suraj Srinivasan接受。B. Franke和Q. Gao Fritz感谢德国研究基金会(DFG)项目id 403041268-TRR 266透明度会计的资金支持。A. Stenzel感谢DFG在曼海姆大学工作期间通过CRC TR 224 (C03项目)提供的经济支持。补充材料:在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4718上获得。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Microeconomics: Asymmetric & Private Information eJournal
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